4195 Lucerne Villas Ln

Greenacres, FL 33467

$215,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,251 sqft · Built 1979 · Townhouse · Active · 167 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,306/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$245
• HOA: −$517
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-68/mo
• Annual: $-811/yr
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.35%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-811/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (5.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#490 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 651 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $215k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?