Penfield Plan

St. John Fisher College, NY 14625

$143,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 858 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,080/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $986/mo
• Annual: $11,836/yr
• Cap rate: 18.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.50%
• DSCR: 2.98
• 1% rule: 2.19%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $144k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $986 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• It's been on market 858 days — a 12% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Penfield Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #67 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Indian Landing Elementary School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 542 students, 22% FRL); Bay Trail Middle School (math 59% / reading 78%, grade A, #94 of 729 statewide, top 13%, 1,113 students, 23% FRL); Penfield Senior High School (math 98% / reading 72%, grade A, #369 of 1,100 statewide, top 34%, 1,424 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 858 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.