Penfield Plan · St. John Fisher College, NY 14625

$143,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 858 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 858 days

🏗️ New construction. The $143,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $94,999.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $144k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $986 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Penfield Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #67 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Indian Landing Elementary School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 542 students, 22% FRL); Bay Trail Middle School (math 59% / reading 78%, grade A, #94 of 729 statewide, top 13%, 1,113 students, 23% FRL); Penfield Senior High School (math 98% / reading 72%, grade A, #369 of 1,100 statewide, top 34%, 1,424 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 858 days — a 12% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $126,632 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 858 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.50%
• DSCR: 2.98
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,999
• List price: $143,900
• Delta: 51.48%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 Wayside Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,600 (+2%)	15mo	$140,000	$88	75
7 Skyway Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-7%)	8mo	$134,000	$92	72
2 Penview Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-10%)	9mo	$155,000	$110	66
1 Beatrice Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,387 (-12%)	13mo	$132,000	$95	61
34 Ewald Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,387 (-12%)	11mo	$130,000	$94	61
36 Sebastian Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,387 (-12%)	10mo	$130,000	$94	56
23 Ewald Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,387 (-12%)	20mo	$136,000	$98	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $47,459
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $122,348
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14625

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,080 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $986

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $94,999

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,052	-5% $1,019	+0% $986	+5% $954	+10% $921
Rent	-10% $822	-5% $904	+0% $986	+5% $1,069	+10% $1,151
Rate	-1.0pp $1,034	-0.5pp $1,011	base $986	+0.5pp $962	+1.0pp $937

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3540 East Ave Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1261	$4,123	$3.27	4d	10	0.50mi
3765 East Ave Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1826	$2,900	$1.59	4d	1	0.72mi
278 Penn Ln Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	1184	$2,100	$1.77	4d	1	1.10mi
18 Brook Hill Ln Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	841	$1,915	$2.28	4d	1	1.14mi
214 Magnolia Ave East Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	25d	1	1.35mi
218 1/2 Magnolia Ave East Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,400	$1.17	45d	1	1.36mi
108 W Filbert St Unit 2 East Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,525	$1.39	4d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $143,900 Active 858 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $143,900 Active 855 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $143,900 Active 854 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $143,900 Active 853 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $143,900 Active 852 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $143,900 Active 850 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $143,900 Active 847 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $143,900 Active 846 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $143,900 Active 845 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $143,900 Active 844 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $143,900 Active 840 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $143,900 Active 839 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $143,900 Active 838 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $143,900 Active 837 DOM
15. 2024-02-14
    listed $143,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,996
• − Management: −$1,996
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $10,977
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,635
• After-tax cash flow: $9,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in fair condition with a cosmetic rehab level, requiring minor exterior painting and window cleaning to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Painting the exterior can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Clean the windows — Clean windows can make the home appear more attractive and increase its value for both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Painting the exterior can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Clean the windows — Clean windows can make the home appear more attractive and increase its value for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penfield Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622710
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $74,802
• Composite: 68.37/100
• National rank: #347
• State rank: #67 of 590 in NY

Livability — St. John Fisher College

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,667

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Subsaharan African 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.69%
• Current HPI: 275.9721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-02-14 Listed $143,900 Zillow