154 Spring Creek Camp Rd

Shelby, AL 35143

$142,500D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · Built 2022 · Manufactured · Active · 124 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,176/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$747
• Tax + insurance: −$238
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $-56/mo
• Annual: $-673/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.69%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $39,900

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $142k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-673/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (17.5% below list).
• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $985 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#265 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shelby Elementary School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #142 of 627 statewide, top 25%, 209 students, 61% FRL); Columbiana Middle School (math 14% / reading 43%, grade F, #138 of 257 statewide, top 54%, 428 students, 63% FRL); Shelby County High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #70 of 305 statewide, top 27%, 584 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 26% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $142k implies a 332% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 1.5% in Shelby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.