154 Spring Creek Camp Rd · Shelby, AL 35143

$142,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · Manufactured · 124 Days on market

Built 2022 $97/sqft · at area comps Est $139k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCTION!!! Just in time for Spring and the summer season on the Lake! Built in 2022, this custom 16x80 mobile home offers modern comfort in the sought-after Spring Creek area of Lay Lake. With 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, the split-bedroom layout provides privacy while the open living spaces make it easy to gather with family and friends. A bright sunroom adds extra space to relax and enjoy the peaceful setting. The property also includes a convenient 2 car carport. Situated on a leased lot, this home makes an excellent weekend getaway or a comfortable full-time residence, just steps from the water and all that lake life has to offer.

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Bright sunroom
• Steps from the water

Tags

• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• BRIGHT SUNROOM
• CONVENIENT STORAGE BUILDING
• STEPS FROM THE WATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $142k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-673/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 1.5% in Shelby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#265 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shelby Elementary School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #142 of 627 statewide, top 25%, 209 students, 61% FRL); Columbiana Middle School (math 14% / reading 43%, grade F, #138 of 257 statewide, top 54%, 428 students, 63% FRL); Shelby County High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #70 of 305 statewide, top 27%, 584 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 26% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $985 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $142k implies a 332% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $117,558 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.69%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $139,000
• List price: $142,500
• Delta: 2.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-26,645
• Equity at exit: $21,247

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-27,729
• Equity at exit: $12,321

Cash invested: $39,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35143

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$747
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$178 /mo · $2,138/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,247

Max offer price $134,386

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $-7	+0% $-56	+5% $-105	+10% $-155
Rent	-10% $-149	-5% $-103	+0% $-56	+5% $-10	+10% $37
Rate	-1.0pp $16	-0.5pp $-20	base $-56	+0.5pp $-93	+1.0pp $-131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,625
• Closing costs: $4,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $142,500 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $142,500 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $142,500 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $142,500 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $142,500 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $142,500 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $142,500 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $142,500 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $142,500 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $142,500 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $142,500 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $142,500 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-03-31
    price $142,500 646-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    PRICE REDUCTION!!! Just in time for Spring and the summer season on the Lake! Built in 2022, this custom 16x80 mobile home offers modern comfort in the sought-after Spring Creek area of Lay Lake. With 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, the split-bedroom layout provides privacy while the open living spaces make it easy to gather with family and friends. A bright sunroom adds extra space to relax and enjoy the peaceful setting. The property also includes a convenient 2 car carport. Situated on a leased lot, this home makes an excellent weekend getaway or a comfortable full-time residence, just steps from the water and all that lake life has to offer.

14. 2026-02-12
    listed $147,500 Active 646-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    PRICE REDUCTION!!! Just in time for Spring and the summer season on the Lake! Built in 2022, this custom 16x80 mobile home offers modern comfort in the sought-after Spring Creek area of Lay Lake. With 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, the split-bedroom layout provides privacy while the open living spaces make it easy to gather with family and friends. A bright sunroom adds extra space to relax and enjoy the peaceful setting. The property also includes a convenient 2 car carport. Situated on a leased lot, this home makes an excellent weekend getaway or a comfortable full-time residence, just steps from the water and all that lake life has to offer.

15. 2025-09-18
    price $147,500
16. 2025-08-16
    price $149,900
17. 2012-10-26
    soldstatus $33,000
18. 2011-05-13
    listed $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,982
• − Property taxes: −$2,138
• − Insurance: −$712
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,129
• − Management: −$1,129
• − Depreciation: −$4,145
• Taxable loss: −$3,128
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$751
• After-tax cash flow: $78/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Shelby

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #18242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,966

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Korean 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.25%
• Current HPI: 337.6659
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+257.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $142,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $147,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $147,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $149,900 FSBO.com
• 2012-10-26 Sold (MLS) $33,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2011-05-13 Listed $39,900 Greater Alabama MLS