446 Pipe Creek Dr

Temple, TX 76502

$279,900F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,654 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 192 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,086/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$466
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-286/mo
• Annual: $-3,437/yr
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.39%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (25.5% below list).
• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $209k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#122 in TX, #3,814 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D+.
• Academy ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #309 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 1114 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.6% in Temple — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.