446 Pipe Creek Dr · Temple, TX 76502

$279,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,654 sqft · Land · 192 Days on market

Built 2025 $169/sqft · at area comps Est $290k · at est. ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Some images shown may be from a previously built Stylecraft home of similar design. Actual options, colors, and selections may vary. Contact us for details! This four-bedroom, two bath home is a great option for those looking for more bedrooms without a second story! You won't believe your eyes as you walk into the great space that is the open concept living room, dining room, and kitchen. With all of its wonderful features, to include walk-in closets, granite countertops, and corner kitchen with island, you are sure to love this home! Additional options included: Stainless steel appliances, painted cabinets throughout, quartz countertops throughout, additional LED recessed lighting, 1 exterior coach light, a dual primary bathroom vanity, operable windows in common areas, and kitchen prewired for pendant lighting.

Key facts

• Painted cabinets
• Walk-in closets
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CORNER KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PAINTED CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.6% in Temple — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#122 in TX, #3,814 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D+.
• Academy ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #309 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 1114 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,598 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.39%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,174
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: -3.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-69,678
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-107,659
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76502

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 1114
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,086 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,198/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $238,458

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9512 Swenson Ln Temple, TX	4.0	3.0	1833	$2,050	$1.12	13d	1	0.32mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 192 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,900 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 184 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 183 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 182 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,900 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 176 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 175 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 174 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,900 Active 173 DOM
15. 2026-02-05
    price $279,900 825-char remark

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    Some images shown may be from a previously built Stylecraft home of similar design. Actual options, colors, and selections may vary. Contact us for details! This four-bedroom, two bath home is a great option for those looking for more bedrooms without a second story! You won't believe your eyes as you walk into the great space that is the open concept living room, dining room, and kitchen. With all of its wonderful features, to include walk-in closets, granite countertops, and corner kitchen with island, you are sure to love this home! Additional options included: Stainless steel appliances, painted cabinets throughout, quartz countertops throughout, additional LED recessed lighting, 1 exterior coach light, a dual primary bathroom vanity, operable windows in common areas, and kitchen prewired for pendant lighting.

16. 2026-01-20
    price $284,900 825-char remark

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    Some images shown may be from a previously built Stylecraft home of similar design. Actual options, colors, and selections may vary. Contact us for details! This four-bedroom, two bath home is a great option for those looking for more bedrooms without a second story! You won't believe your eyes as you walk into the great space that is the open concept living room, dining room, and kitchen. With all of its wonderful features, to include walk-in closets, granite countertops, and corner kitchen with island, you are sure to love this home! Additional options included: Stainless steel appliances, painted cabinets throughout, quartz countertops throughout, additional LED recessed lighting, 1 exterior coach light, a dual primary bathroom vanity, operable windows in common areas, and kitchen prewired for pendant lighting.

17. 2025-12-08
    listed $284,100 Active 825-char remark

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    Some images shown may be from a previously built Stylecraft home of similar design. Actual options, colors, and selections may vary. Contact us for details! This four-bedroom, two bath home is a great option for those looking for more bedrooms without a second story! You won't believe your eyes as you walk into the great space that is the open concept living room, dining room, and kitchen. With all of its wonderful features, to include walk-in closets, granite countertops, and corner kitchen with island, you are sure to love this home! Additional options included: Stainless steel appliances, painted cabinets throughout, quartz countertops throughout, additional LED recessed lighting, 1 exterior coach light, a dual primary bathroom vanity, operable windows in common areas, and kitchen prewired for pendant lighting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$4,198
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,003
• − Management: −$2,003
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$8,393
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,014
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,423/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Academy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807470
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $60,492
• Composite: 36.73/100
• National rank: #4591
• State rank: #309 of 826 in TX

Livability — Temple

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #3814

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Temple, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 96,587
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,669
• Household income: $82,088
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1890.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.80%
• Current HPI: 166.927
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $279,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $284,900 Zillow
• 2025-12-08 Listed $284,100 Zillow

Property tax history

+118.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $309 · +22.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.