420 E 51st St Unit 8DE

New York, NY 10022

$599,900D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 1962 · Condo · Pending · 147 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,892/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax + insurance: −$1,000
• HOA: −$5,279
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,657
• Net cashflow: $-3,190/mo
• Annual: $-38,281/yr
• Cap rate: -0.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -22.79%
• DSCR: -0.01
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $167,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $600k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-38k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $600k).
• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($528k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $528k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 67% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 715 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 12 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $76k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate -0.1% vs local median 2.6% in New York — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $7,892/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($172k/yr) (locally 2256% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?