9 Kay Ln #9

West Freehold, NJ 07731

$135,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,787/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$779
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $490/mo
• Annual: $5,878/yr
• Cap rate: 10.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.55%
• DSCR: 1.69
• 1% rule: 2.06%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $490 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#173 in NJ, #4,542 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Howell Township Public School District (suburban): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #195 of 472 in NJ (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.6% in West Freehold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor: bathroom fixtures — slight wear
• Minor: landscaping — some dead grass