9 Kay Ln #9 · West Freehold, NJ 07731

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 2005 Good condition Est $149k · 9% under $779/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Monthly Fee pays for: sewerage disposal, water, trash and Recycling pickup, snow plowing and cutting the common area grass. Included in the sale is a 10-foot X12-foot shed, stainless steel kitchen appliances, which includes a stainless-steel up-right freezer. and washer and dryer. This home is move-in ready. The kitchen table and four chairs are negotiable.

Key facts

• Washer and dryer
• Built 2005
• Listed 38 days

Tags

• 10-FOOT X12-FOOT SHED
• WASHER AND DRYER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Monmouth County (Fort Plains / Howell area)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $779.24 covering trash, sewer, snow removal, and water; Association: Green Acres Manor

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle and flat roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No fireplaces; No basement; Living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $490 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.6% in West Freehold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#173 in NJ, #4,542 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Howell Township Public School District (suburban): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #195 of 472 in NJ (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.55%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,800
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Citation St	0.25mi	2/1.0	1,000 (+4%)	8mo	$145,000	$145	71
74 Ruffian Way	0.39mi	2/1.0	975 (+2%)	6mo	$100,000	$103	70
55 Secretariat St	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,000 (+4%)	7mo	$155,000	$155	67
15 Citation St	0.19mi	2/1.0	865 (-10%)	10mo	$153,000	$177	63
30 Citation St	0.23mi	2/1.0	840 (-12%)	17mo	$143,000	$170	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,752
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $31,005
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07731

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,787 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$779
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,167

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 N American Dr Howell Township, NJ	3.0	1.0	753	$2,598	$3.45	1d	7	0.26mi
633 Hulses Corner Rd Howell, NJ	3.0	1.0	1088	$3,100	$2.85	1d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $779 · $9,348/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashsnow removal

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $135,000 Active 359-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,676
• − Management: −$2,676
• − HOA: −$9,348
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $4,556
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,094
• After-tax cash flow: $4,784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 24 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is move-in ready with good condition and minimal repairs needed. A fresh paint job and updated kitchen would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — slight wear
• Minor landscaping — some dead grass

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to both buyers and renters
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpeting with hardwood or tile — hardwood or tile flooring would increase the home's value and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · some dead grass	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpeting with hardwood or tile — hardwood or tile flooring would increase the home's value and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Howell Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3407560
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $93,085
• Composite: 39.35/100
• National rank: #3979
• State rank: #195 of 472 in NJ

Livability — West Freehold

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #173
• US rank: #4542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• City population: 56,623
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 40,322
• Household income: $134,056
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 590.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -303.76%
• Current HPI: 375.492
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $135,000 MOMLS