4387 Lavender Ln

Pahrump, NV 89061

$315,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,533 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,094/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$110
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-433/mo
• Annual: $-5,195/yr
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.89%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-433 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (33.5% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $209k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#30 in NV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Nye County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #16 of 17 in NV (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes.
• Nye County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Pahrump — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.