4387 Lavender Ln · Pahrump, NV 89061

$315,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,533 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2015 8,712 sqft lot $205/sqft · 8% below area Est $343k · 8% under $110/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 55% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful move-in ready home on a premium oversized corner lot directly across from the park in beautiful Mountain Falls! This highly desirable 2-bedroom, 2-bath + den floor plan offers approximately 1,533 sq. ft. of comfortable living space with a spacious great room design and an attached 2-car garage. Recently refreshed with full interior paint, exterior touch-up paint, and brand-new carpet, this home shows pride of ownership throughout. A stunning view of Mount Charleston right from the kitchen window, the very feature that made this home so special to the original owner. The backyard, featuring a full-length covered patio, grass area, mature peach and pomegranate trees, and raised vege

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Mountain Falls); HOA fee $110 monthly; HOA covers association management, common areas, taxes; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, golf course, pool, spa/hot tub

Exterior

• Parking: Attached finished garage; 2-car garage; Inside entrance from garage; Open parking available
• Utilities: Electricity available; No photovoltaics; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family home; Single-story; Faces west; Resale property; Has a view
• Construction: Tile roof; Resale construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Drip irrigation/bubblers in yard; Desert landscaping; Fruit trees; Garden; Sprinklers in rear; Landscaped backyard; Block fencing in back yard; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite countertops; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar/counter; Tile flooring in kitchen; Dishwasher; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (one primary suite downstairs)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bath with double sink and shower; Secondary bath with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double-pane windows; Bedroom on main level; Primary bedroom downstairs
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer and dryer included; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-433 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (33.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Pahrump — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#30 in NV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Nye County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #16 of 17 in NV (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Nye County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,409 (33.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.89%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,576
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -8.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5200 Lilia Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,533 (0%)	2mo	$300,000	$196	88
4454 Luciano Ave	0.28mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,533 (0%)	1mo	$315,000	$205	79
5341 E La Campana Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,533 (0%)	2mo	$335,000	$219	78
5067 Semifonte Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,396 (-9%)	3mo	$300,000	$215	70
4860 Prato Way	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,546 (+1%)	2mo	$321,000	$208	65
4732 S Adriano Way	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,451 (-5%)	3mo	$290,000	$200	65
5495 Finestra St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,611 (+5%)	3mo	$305,000	$189	58
5776 E Badlands Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,681 (+10%)	3mo	$290,000	$173	53
4830 Lorenzo Way	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,757 (+15%)	1mo	$299,900	$171	51
4465 Golden Horizon St	0.72mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,724 (+12%)	1mo	$361,185	$210	38
4475 Golden Horizon St	0.73mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,724 (+12%)	1mo	$375,000	$218	38
4455 Golden Horizon St	0.74mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,724 (+12%)	2mo	$384,160	$223	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $6,769
• Equity at exit: $137,830

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $67,245
• Equity at exit: $209,498

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 71 Landlord-Friendly
• State Nevada: 71 Landlord-Friendly · R+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; Clark County (Vegas) had pandemic backlogs; generally landlord-friendly but courts slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 89061

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,094 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,330/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$110
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,642

Max offer price $238,518

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5190 Lignum Ave Pahrump, NV	2.0	2.0	1833	$2,100	$1.15	17d	1	0.12mi
5485 San Pietro Dr Pahrump, NV	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,200	$1.44	23d	1	0.41mi
5776 E Badlands Ln Pahrump, NV	3.0	2.0	1681	$1,995	$1.19	23d	1	0.49mi
5406 Carrara Pointe St Pahrump, NV	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,000	$1.13	7d	1	0.58mi
4881 Castello Way Pahrump, NV	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,035	$1.15	20d	1	0.68mi
4921 Novelli Pl Pahrump, NV	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,050	$1.41	43d	1	0.70mi
5720 Al Fresco Ave Pahrump, NV	3.0	2.0	2245	$2,350	$1.05	23d	1	0.77mi
5980 Drosetta Ave Pahrump, NV	2.0	2.0	1511	$2,195	$1.45	23d	1	0.77mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $110 · $1,320/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $315,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $315,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $319,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $319,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $319,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $319,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $319,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $325,000 Active 977-char remark
18. 2013-07-10
    soldstatus $575,000
19. 2012-07-25
    soldstatus $702,125

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,330 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,330 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,330
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,010
• − Management: −$2,010
• − HOA: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$10,925
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,622
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nye County School District
• NCES district ID: 3200360
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,447
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #8110
• State rank: #16 of 17 in NV

Livability — Pahrump

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #9226

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pahrump, NV
• County: Nye County · 47,491 people
• City population: 47,491
• Metro: Pahrump, NV
• Population (ZIP): 8,141
• Household income: $77,991
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 52.0

Population outlook (Nye County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,727 people
• By 2030: 38,812 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 33,952 · -16.6%
• By 2050: 29,393 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 21,122 · -48.1%
• By 2100: 14,400 · -64.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 8% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nye

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.0% · R 70.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -13.4pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+42.0 2012: R+24.2 2008: R+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Current HPI: 266.2633
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pahrump, NV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NV)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Hotels / Casinos	3	$36B

Price history

-55.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $315,000 GLVAR
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $319,000 GLVAR
• 2026-05-07 Listed $325,000 GLVAR
• 2013-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $575,000 Public Records
• 2012-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $702,125 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,330 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.