13478 Old Lake Rd #22

Conneaut, OH 16411

$99,900D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 690 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $977/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$63
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $18/mo
• Annual: $217/yr
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.77%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($217/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (2.3% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $931 of equity ($691 loan paydown + $240 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#808 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, health & safety D.
• Northwestern SD (town): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #333 of 539 in PA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.6% in Conneaut — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — No photos of the roof
• Major: exterior siding — No photos of the exterior siding
• Major: interior walls/paint — No photos of the interior walls/paint
• Major: windows — No photos of the windows
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals
• Major: landscaping/curb appeal — No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal