13478 Old Lake Rd #22 · Conneaut, OH 16411

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 690 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 1960 Poor condition $145/sqft · 57% below area $63/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you're looking to get away from the hustle and bustle and unplug, this is for you! This fully furnished 3 season cottage is nestled on a lot tucked away by the woods with a stream behind and Lake Erie across the road. An original 2 bedroom, 1 full bath 1960 mobile home has had a large family room and porch built on for added space. The original nostalgic kitchen comes with all contents, including dishes and small appliances. Enjoy wooded views from just about every window. A screened in gazebo sits just behind the cottage as well as a bench looking out to the woods and over the stream. A large storage shed will fit your outdoor toys and landscaping equipment. Relax on the enclosed porch and listen to the outdoors and the waves from the lake just across the way. Community Lake access is available just a few steps away, including picnic tables and a boat ramp. Once you experience the peace and quiet, you'll want to stay!

Key facts

• Large family room
• Wooded views
• Screened in gazebo

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED COTTAGE
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• SCREENED IN GAZEBO
• WOODED VIEWS
• COMMUNITY LAKE ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($217/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.6% in Conneaut — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#808 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, health & safety D.
• Northwestern SD (town): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #333 of 539 in PA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $931 of equity ($691 loan paydown + $240 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.77%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,758
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -56.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13478 Old Lake Rd #12	0.00mi	2/1.0	609 (-12%)	11mo	$170,200	$279	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-587
• Equity at exit: $30,212

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $15,585
• Equity at exit: $37,291

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16411

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $977 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $954

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 936-char remark

   Show marketing remark (936 chars)

   If you're looking to get away from the hustle and bustle and unplug, this is for you! This fully furnished 3 season cottage is nestled on a lot tucked away by the woods with a stream behind and Lake Erie across the road. An original 2 bedroom, 1 full bath 1960 mobile home has had a large family room and porch built on for added space. The original nostalgic kitchen comes with all contents, including dishes and small appliances. Enjoy wooded views from just about every window. A screened in gazebo sits just behind the cottage as well as a bench looking out to the woods and over the stream. A large storage shed will fit your outdoor toys and landscaping equipment. Relax on the enclosed porch and listen to the outdoors and the waves from the lake just across the way. Community Lake access is available just a few steps away, including picnic tables and a boat ramp. Once you experience the peace and quiet, you'll want to stay!

2. 2026-04-08
   listed $99,900 Active 936-char remark

   Show marketing remark (936 chars)

   If you're looking to get away from the hustle and bustle and unplug, this is for you! This fully furnished 3 season cottage is nestled on a lot tucked away by the woods with a stream behind and Lake Erie across the road. An original 2 bedroom, 1 full bath 1960 mobile home has had a large family room and porch built on for added space. The original nostalgic kitchen comes with all contents, including dishes and small appliances. Enjoy wooded views from just about every window. A screened in gazebo sits just behind the cottage as well as a bench looking out to the woods and over the stream. A large storage shed will fit your outdoor toys and landscaping equipment. Relax on the enclosed porch and listen to the outdoors and the waves from the lake just across the way. Community Lake access is available just a few steps away, including picnic tables and a boat ramp. Once you experience the peace and quiet, you'll want to stay!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$937
• − Management: −$937
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$1,413
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$339
• After-tax cash flow: $556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to its roof, exterior, interior, windows, HVAC, and landscaping, significantly impacting its current condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No photos of the roof
• Major exterior siding — No photos of the exterior siding
• Major interior walls/paint — No photos of the interior walls/paint
• Major windows — No photos of the windows
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value
• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding would enhance the home's curb appeal and value
• Both interior painting — Painting the interior would make the home more inviting and increase its value
• Both window replacement — New windows would improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value
• Both HVAC system upgrade — Upgrading the HVAC system would improve comfort and increase the home's value
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained landscape would enhance the home's curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · No photos of the roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · No photos of the exterior siding	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No photos of the interior walls/paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No photos of the windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping/curb appeal · No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding would enhance the home's curb appeal and value ↑
• Both interior painting — Painting the interior would make the home more inviting and increase its value ↑
• Both window replacement — New windows would improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — Upgrading the HVAC system would improve comfort and increase the home's value ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained landscape would enhance the home's curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwestern SD
• NCES district ID: 4217880
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -22.00%
• Median HH income: $48,180
• Composite: 35.51/100
• National rank: #4912
• State rank: #333 of 539 in PA

Livability — Conneaut

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #808
• US rank: #14907

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie · 78,232 people
• City population: 16,317
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 1,287
• Household income: $67,000
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.24%
• Current HPI: 235.3549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-04-08 Listed $99,900 GEBOR