2133 Shawnee Trl

Fort Worth, TX 76247

$258,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,180/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,353
• Tax + insurance: −$389
• HOA: −$30
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-50/mo
• Annual: $-602/yr
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.83%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $72,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-602/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (15.5% below list).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Clara Love El (math 27% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 766 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 22% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Northwest ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 1498 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?