2133 Shawnee Trl · Fort Worth, TX 76247

$258,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 2003 5,489 sqft lot Est $246k · at est. $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pristine home in excellent condition in NWISD and in Highly acclaimed Harriet Creek Ranch. Close to Tanger Outlet TMS and 114. Pictures coming this weekend Showings to begin Saturday April 24, 2021 at 12:00pm Multiple Offers Received. Final and best due by Monday 4-26-21 at 6:00pm.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• New water heater
• New ac system

Tags

• HARD SURFACE FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• NEW AC SYSTEM
• NEW WATER HEATER
• QUIET WELCOMING NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions provided to property; Community features include pool and playground
• Financial info: Financing accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly association fee (paid to Castle Group); Association fee includes full use of facilities and management fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; Driveway; Attached 2-car garage (approx. 20' width)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Municipal utility district: No
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Entry on main level; Subdivision: Harriet Creek Ranch Ph 1
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2003
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5 acre lot; Curbs; Sidewalk; Community pool; Playground

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace(s) contribute to heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s); One living area; One dining area; Total room count: 9; Living room with wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room / laundry room (9 x 6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-602/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Clara Love El (math 27% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 766 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 22% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Northwest ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 1498 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $217,978 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.83%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,304
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2133 Shawnee Trl	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,376 (0%)	1mo	$258,000	$188	100
16444 Cowboy Trl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,376 (0%)	9mo	$245,900	$179	61
1932 Elk Lake Trl	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,507 (+10%)	10mo	$274,900	$182	55
1908 Ramada Trl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,507 (+10%)	11mo	$269,900	$179	54
1816 Diamond Lake Trl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,507 (+10%)	13mo	$225,000	$149	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-51,365
• Equity at exit: $38,469

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-73,424
• Equity at exit: $22,307

Cash invested: $72,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76247

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 1498
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,180 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,353
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,381/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,243

Max offer price $249,135

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,500
• Closing costs: $7,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1973 Lariat Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$1,895	$1.26	18d	1	0.37mi
16701 Windthorst Way Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1376	$1,950	$1.42	43d	1	0.69mi
1724 Arbuckle Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1647	$1,850	$1.12	18d	1	0.71mi
1708 Sierra Meadow Ln Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1647	$2,125	$1.29	22d	1	0.73mi
1705 Carolina Ridge Way Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$1,945	$1.29	43d	1	0.77mi
1724 Trego Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,900	$1.11	43d	1	0.82mi
1705 Diamond Lake Trl Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,850	$1.47	43d	1	0.84mi
1617 Rialto Way Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1701	$1,940	$1.14	12d	1	0.85mi
16661 Woodside Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1376	$1,809	$1.31	24d	1	0.92mi
1401 Elkford Ln Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1872	$2,400	$1.28	24d	1	0.98mi
1325 Amazon Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,050	$1.27	11d	1	1.08mi
16453 Severn Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	1d	1	1.26mi
16408 Severn Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1839	$2,475	$1.35	24d	1	1.26mi
1212 Amazon Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$1,950	$1.29	43d	1	1.27mi
1309 Water Canna Dr Northlake, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1833	$2,533	$1.38	1d	18	1.32mi
1329 Water Canna Dr Northlake, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,403	$1.50	43d	1	1.32mi
1440 Native Blooms Way Northlake, TX	3.0	2.0	1706	$2,760	$1.62	7d	1	1.33mi
1453 Native Blooms Way Northlake, TX	3.0	2.0	1707	$2,760	$1.62	22d	1	1.33mi
16060 Breeze St Justin, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$2,035	$2.12	43d	1	1.36mi
1104 Highway 114 Justin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,287	$2.44	1d	18	1.37mi
1104 Milfoil Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1745	$2,500	$1.43	2d	1	1.39mi
2343 Pratum Way Fort Worth, TX	2.0–3.0	2.5	1529	$2,676	$1.75	1d	10	1.40mi
15456 Double Eagle Blvd Unit 2112 Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,628	$1.61	12d	1	1.41mi
2343 Portman Ave Unit 8107 Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,599	$1.58	5d	1	1.44mi
2343 Portman Ave Unit 4107 Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,725	$1.70	24d	1	1.44mi
15621 Bovis Way Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$2,321	$2.14	1d	32	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   price $258,000
3. 2026-04-24
   historical Active Option Contract
4. 2026-04-22
   price $254,900
5. 2026-04-02
   price $258,990
6. 2026-02-23
   price $259,500
7. 2026-02-08
   price $265,000
8. 2026-02-01
   price $266,500
9. 2026-01-10
   price $268,000
10. 2025-12-23
    listed $270,000 Active
11. 2024-08-28
    historical $1,795
12. 2024-08-22
    listed $1,795
13. 2021-05-25
    soldstatus Sold 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Pristine home in excellent condition in NWISD and in Highly acclaimed Harriet Creek Ranch. Close to Tanger Outlet TMS and 114. Pictures coming this weekend Showings to begin Saturday April 24, 2021 at 12:00pm Multiple Offers Received. Final and best due by Monday 4-26-21 at 6:00pm.

14. 2021-05-25
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Pristine home in excellent condition in NWISD and in Highly acclaimed Harriet Creek Ranch. Close to Tanger Outlet TMS and 114. Pictures coming this weekend Showings to begin Saturday April 24, 2021 at 12:00pm Multiple Offers Received. Final and best due by Monday 4-26-21 at 6:00pm.

15. 2021-04-27
    status Pending 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Pristine home in excellent condition in NWISD and in Highly acclaimed Harriet Creek Ranch. Close to Tanger Outlet TMS and 114. Pictures coming this weekend Showings to begin Saturday April 24, 2021 at 12:00pm Multiple Offers Received. Final and best due by Monday 4-26-21 at 6:00pm.

16. 2021-04-23
    listed $230,000 Active 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Pristine home in excellent condition in NWISD and in Highly acclaimed Harriet Creek Ranch. Close to Tanger Outlet TMS and 114. Pictures coming this weekend Showings to begin Saturday April 24, 2021 at 12:00pm Multiple Offers Received. Final and best due by Monday 4-26-21 at 6:00pm.

17. 2015-06-16
    soldstatus
18. 2015-05-11
    soldstatus
19. 2014-03-28
    soldstatus Closed 164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (164 chars)

    WOW! Dont miss out on this move-in ready 3-2-2 home located in the sought after school district: Northwest ISD. Good layout. Refrigerator conveys with sale of home.

20. 2014-03-01
    status Pending 164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (164 chars)

    WOW! Dont miss out on this move-in ready 3-2-2 home located in the sought after school district: Northwest ISD. Good layout. Refrigerator conveys with sale of home.

21. 2014-02-24
    historical Active Option Contract 164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (164 chars)

    WOW! Dont miss out on this move-in ready 3-2-2 home located in the sought after school district: Northwest ISD. Good layout. Refrigerator conveys with sale of home.

22. 2014-02-15
    price $109,900 164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (164 chars)

    WOW! Dont miss out on this move-in ready 3-2-2 home located in the sought after school district: Northwest ISD. Good layout. Refrigerator conveys with sale of home.

23. 2014-02-15
    listed $109,000 Active 164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (164 chars)

    WOW! Dont miss out on this move-in ready 3-2-2 home located in the sought after school district: Northwest ISD. Good layout. Refrigerator conveys with sale of home.

24. 2011-01-07
    historical
25. 2010-11-19
    listed $99,990 Active
26. 2010-11-16
    price $100,000 Canceled
27. 2010-11-16
    historical
28. 2010-07-01
    listed $89,900 Active
29. 2008-06-30
    soldstatus
30. 2008-06-02
    soldstatus
31. 2008-05-04
    historical
32. 2008-03-29
    listed $101,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,381 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,721 · $393/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,341/yr (+$112/mo · 39.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,157
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,452
• − Property taxes: −$3,381
• − Insurance: −$1,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,093
• − Management: −$2,093
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$7,505
• Taxable loss: −$5,016
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,204
• After-tax cash flow: $602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,726
• Household income: $124,383
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 91.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.16%
• Current HPI: 274.368
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.46%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+154.2% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $258,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-24 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $254,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $258,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $259,500 NTREIS
• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $265,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $266,500 NTREIS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $268,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-23 Listed $270,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-28 Rental Removed $1,795 NTREIS
• 2024-08-22 Listed for Rent $1,795 NTREIS
• 2021-05-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-25 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-04-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-04-23 Listed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2015-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-03-28 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2014-03-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2014-02-24 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2014-02-15 Price Changed $109,900 NTREIS
• 2014-02-15 Listed $109,000 NTREIS
• 2011-01-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2010-11-19 Listed $99,990 NTREIS
• 2010-11-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2010-11-16 Price Changed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2010-07-01 Listed $89,900 NTREIS
• 2008-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-06-02 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2008-05-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2008-03-29 Listed $101,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,381 · -37.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.