255 Keels Rd

Sumter, SC 29154

$222,560F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,537 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Pending · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,797/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,167
• Tax + insurance: −$337
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-84/mo
• Annual: $-1,010/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.62%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $62,317

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $223k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (19.3% below list).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#235 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumter 01 (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #64 of 80 in SC (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Millwood Elementary (math 41% / reading 41%, grade F, #276 of 597 statewide, top 48%, 682 students, 100% FRL); Alice Drive Middle (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #144 of 229 statewide, top 63%, 841 students, 100% FRL); Sumter High School (math 22% / reading 67%, grade F, #166 of 196 statewide, top 87%, 2,289 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 23% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Sumter 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 229 active listings in the ZIP; 386 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sumter County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Sumter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?