255 Keels Rd · Sumter, SC 29154

$222,560

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,537 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1969 1.02 ac lot Est $209k · 6% over ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious Ranch with Room to Gather and Grow This large, inviting ranch-style home offers 3-4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and has been a cherished place for multiple generations. Generous living spaces and a thoughtful expansion provide flexibility for a growing household, guests, or home office needs. Situated on a one-acre lot, the property offers ample outdoor space for gardening, recreation, and enjoying outdoor living. With room to play, relax, and create, the expansive yard enhances the home's appeal. The home presents a wonderful opportunity for the next owner to add their own loving touches and make it their own.

Key facts

• One acre lot
• Expansive yard
• Ranch style home

Tags

• RANCH STYLE HOME
• ONE ACRE LOT
• EXPANSIVE YARD
• OUTDOOR LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $223k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Sumter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#235 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumter 01 (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #64 of 80 in SC (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Millwood Elementary (math 41% / reading 41%, grade F, #276 of 597 statewide, top 48%, 682 students, 100% FRL); Alice Drive Middle (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #144 of 229 statewide, top 63%, 841 students, 100% FRL); Sumter High School (math 22% / reading 67%, grade F, #166 of 196 statewide, top 87%, 2,289 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 23% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Sumter 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 229 active listings in the ZIP; 386 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,696 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.62%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,032
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2852 Sequoia Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-0%)	12mo	$210,000	$137	81
2942 September Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+6%)	1mo	$236,000	$145	77
2800 Joyce St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+5%)	12mo	$220,000	$136	76
287 Keels Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+3%)	9mo	$160,000	$101	74
3075 Joyce St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,626 (+6%)	10mo	$235,000	$145	69
300 Katydid St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-3%)	3mo	$217,500	$145	68
3080 Joyce St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,657 (+8%)	14mo	$200,000	$121	61
2823 September Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,694 (+10%)	9mo	$230,500	$136	60
2920 Joyce St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,752 (+14%)	9mo	$230,000	$131	57
2831 September Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,755 (+14%)	13mo	$235,000	$134	48
270 Planters Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+9%)	15mo	$253,000	$151	44
75 Planters Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,746 (+14%)	11mo	$215,000	$123	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-39,244
• Equity at exit: $33,184

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-31,902
• Equity at exit: $19,243

Cash invested: $62,317 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29154

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 229
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,797 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,167
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,927/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,904

Max offer price $207,685

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,640
• Closing costs: $6,677
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $222,560
3. 2026-01-12
   listed $227,560 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,927 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,927 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,927
• − Insurance: −$1,113
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,725
• − Management: −$1,725
• − Depreciation: −$6,474
• Taxable loss: −$4,868
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,168
• After-tax cash flow: $158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter 01
• NCES district ID: 4503902
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,423
• Composite: 19.45/100
• National rank: #8775
• State rank: #64 of 80 in SC

Livability — Sumter

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #19754

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sumter County · 76,912 people
• City population: 67,992
• Metro: Sumter, SC
• Population (ZIP): 29,454
• Household income: $62,772
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,585 people
• By 2030: 102,282 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 96,258 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 89,592 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 74,715 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 60,235 · -42.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 36% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.9% · R 47.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: 15.4pp · 2024: 4.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.9 2020: D+13.0 2016: D+12.0 2012: D+17.5 2008: D+15.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.65%
• Current HPI: 157.8545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.19%
• Metro: Sumter, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — SBOR
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $222,560 SBOR
• 2026-01-12 Listed $227,560 SBOR

Property tax history

+19.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,927 · +49.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.