411 Birchwood Dr

Monroe, LA 71203

$129,000B-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,484 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 183 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,596/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $442/mo
• Annual: $5,309/yr
• Cap rate: 10.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.70%
• DSCR: 1.65
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $442 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#128 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Ouachita Parish (suburban): math 31% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #26 of 98 in LA (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 437 active listings in the ZIP; 345 units permitted in Ouachita Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 5.7% in Monroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.