411 Birchwood Dr · Monroe, LA 71203

$129,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,484 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 183 Days on market

Built 1978 $52/sqft · 54% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recognize the potential in this 5-bedroom 3 bath home conveniently located off Highway 165. The substantial bedroom count offers remarkable flexibility for various living arrangements, from large families to rental income opportunities. This versatility makes it an attractive option for investors seeking properties with multiple revenue streams or homeowners requiring adaptable space. Schedule your private showing today and experience all the comfort and convenience this wonderful home has to offer in this desirable neighborhood location.

Key facts

• Built 1978
• Listed 182 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $442 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 5.7% in Monroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#128 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Ouachita Parish (suburban): math 31% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #26 of 98 in LA (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 437 active listings in the ZIP; 345 units permitted in Ouachita Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.70%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,828
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -52.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 Fortune Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,397 (-4%)	4mo	$275,000	$115	58
107 Bayou Bend Rd	0.51mi	3/2.5	2,180 (-12%)	1mo	$380,000	$174	53
273 Horseshoe Lake Rd	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,285 (-8%)	16mo	$235,500	$103	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $7,253
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $42,514
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71203

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Active inventory: 437
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,596 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,056/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,036

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,000 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 174 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 173 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 172 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 171 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,000 Active 163 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $129,000 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Recognize the potential in this 5-bedroom 3 bath home conveniently located off Highway 165. The substantial bedroom count offers remarkable flexibility for various living arrangements, from large families to rental income opportunities. This versatility makes it an attractive option for investors seeking properties with multiple revenue streams or homeowners requiring adaptable space. Schedule your private showing today and experience all the comfort and convenience this wonderful home has to offer in this desirable neighborhood location.

18. 2026-03-30
    price $139,900 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Recognize the potential in this 5-bedroom 3 bath home conveniently located off Highway 165. The substantial bedroom count offers remarkable flexibility for various living arrangements, from large families to rental income opportunities. This versatility makes it an attractive option for investors seeking properties with multiple revenue streams or homeowners requiring adaptable space. Schedule your private showing today and experience all the comfort and convenience this wonderful home has to offer in this desirable neighborhood location.

19. 2026-02-24
    price $149,900 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Recognize the potential in this 5-bedroom 3 bath home conveniently located off Highway 165. The substantial bedroom count offers remarkable flexibility for various living arrangements, from large families to rental income opportunities. This versatility makes it an attractive option for investors seeking properties with multiple revenue streams or homeowners requiring adaptable space. Schedule your private showing today and experience all the comfort and convenience this wonderful home has to offer in this desirable neighborhood location.

20. 2026-01-21
    price $159,900 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Recognize the potential in this 5-bedroom 3 bath home conveniently located off Highway 165. The substantial bedroom count offers remarkable flexibility for various living arrangements, from large families to rental income opportunities. This versatility makes it an attractive option for investors seeking properties with multiple revenue streams or homeowners requiring adaptable space. Schedule your private showing today and experience all the comfort and convenience this wonderful home has to offer in this desirable neighborhood location.

21. 2025-12-17
    listed $169,900 Active 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Recognize the potential in this 5-bedroom 3 bath home conveniently located off Highway 165. The substantial bedroom count offers remarkable flexibility for various living arrangements, from large families to rental income opportunities. This versatility makes it an attractive option for investors seeking properties with multiple revenue streams or homeowners requiring adaptable space. Schedule your private showing today and experience all the comfort and convenience this wonderful home has to offer in this desirable neighborhood location.

22. 2015-10-26
    soldstatus $110,000
23. 2014-07-19
    listed $109,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,056 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,056 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,149
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,056
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,532
• − Management: −$1,532
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $3,406
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$817
• After-tax cash flow: $4,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ouachita Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201200
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $43,316
• Composite: 32.14/100
• National rank: #5791
• State rank: #26 of 98 in LA

Livability — Monroe

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #11948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ouachita Parish · 118,340 people
• City population: 60,136
• Metro: Monroe, LA
• Population (ZIP): 38,354
• Household income: $52,326
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2085.0

Population outlook (Ouachita County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 163,370 people
• By 2030: 165,520 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 167,652 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 166,699 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 156,348 · -4.3%
• By 2100: 134,102 · -17.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 45% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ouachita

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.5% · R 63.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+23.6 2016: R+25.4 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.01%
• Current HPI: 206.1948
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Monroe, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+17.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $129,000 NELABOR
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $139,900 NELABOR
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $149,900 NELABOR
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $159,900 NELABOR
• 2025-12-17 Listed $169,900 NELABOR
• 2015-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2014-07-19 Listed $109,500 NELABOR

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,056 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.