2415 Quarter Horse Trl #119

Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85933

$132,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,899/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$692
• Tax + insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$410
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $178/mo
• Annual: $2,136/yr
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.78%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 1.44%
• Cash to close: $36,960

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $132k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $132k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $913 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mogollon Jr High School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #57 of 218 statewide, top 27%, 77 students, 0% FRL); Mogollon High School (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #116 of 381 statewide, top 31%, 167 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 16% FRL vs 50% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $132k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.