2415 Quarter Horse Trl #119 · Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85933

$132,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Condo · 27 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition $410/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked into the highly desirable Bison Ranch community, this fully furnished 2-bedroom, 1-bath first-floor condo offers the perfect mountain getaway or investment property opportunity. Thoughtfully designed with an open living and dining area, warm wood cabinetry, abundant natural light, and a welcoming covered front patio, this condo is move-in ready for full-time living or vacation use. Enjoy convenient community amenities including a clubhouse, exercise room, and laundry facility. Located within walking distance to local restaurants and close to year-round outdoor recreation, this charming retreat combines comfort, convenience, and the relaxed mountain lifestyle buyers are looking for.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community amenities
• Exercise room

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• COVERED FRONT PATIO
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE
• EXERCISE ROOM
• LAUNDRY FACILITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current financing: Other
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fees (primary $275/month; additional $135/month); Association covers sewer and exterior maintenance; Community amenities include coin-operated laundry and a fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: Unassigned common parking
• Utilities: Private sewer; Private water company
• Home design: Attached apartment (fee simple ownership)
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame construction; Rolled/hot mop roof
• Exterior features: No fencing; County-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating
• Interior features: Master bedroom on the ground floor; Breakfast bar; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details: see remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $132k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $132k).
• Recommended offer: $130k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mogollon Jr High School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #57 of 218 statewide, top 27%, 77 students, 0% FRL); Mogollon High School (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #116 of 381 statewide, top 31%, 167 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 16% FRL vs 50% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $913 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $132k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,020 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.78%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-9,773
• Equity at exit: $19,682

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $7,227
• Equity at exit: $11,413

Cash invested: $36,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85933

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,899 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$692
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$165 /mo · $1,980/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$410
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,674

Max offer price $132,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,000
• Closing costs: $3,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2399 Quarter Horse Trl #241 Overgaard, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,899	$2.37	14d	1	0.06mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $410 · $4,920/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $132,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $132,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $132,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $132,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $132,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $132,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $132,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $132,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $132,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $132,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $132,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $132,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $132,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $132,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $132,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $132,000 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-05-23
    listed $132,000 Active 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    Tucked into the highly desirable Bison Ranch community, this fully furnished 2-bedroom, 1-bath first-floor condo offers the perfect mountain getaway or investment property opportunity. Thoughtfully designed with an open living and dining area, warm wood cabinetry, abundant natural light, and a welcoming covered front patio, this condo is move-in ready for full-time living or vacation use. Enjoy convenient community amenities including a clubhouse, exercise room, and laundry facility. Located within walking distance to local restaurants and close to year-round outdoor recreation, this charming retreat combines comfort, convenience, and the relaxed mountain lifestyle buyers are looking for.

18. 2026-05-22
    listed $132,000 Active
19. 2017-01-20
    soldstatus $49,000 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Take a look at this luxury condo on the lower level in the Bison Resort Suites! Condo amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, billiards/game area, meeting room, laundry, fireplace & BBQ area. Ranch amenities include tennis, basketball, volleyball, & fish & release pond. Walk to the Bison Town shops, restaurants & horseback riding. Covered patio off the living room to enjoy the cool outdoors in the mountains! All furniture included!

20. 2015-07-06
    listed $53,500 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Take a look at this luxury condo on the lower level in the Bison Resort Suites! Condo amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, billiards/game area, meeting room, laundry, fireplace & BBQ area. Ranch amenities include tennis, basketball, volleyball, & fish & release pond. Walk to the Bison Town shops, restaurants & horseback riding. Covered patio off the living room to enjoy the cool outdoors in the mountains! All furniture included!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,394
• − Property taxes: −$1,980
• − Insurance: −$660
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,823
• − Management: −$1,823
• − HOA: −$4,920
• − Depreciation: −$3,840
• Taxable income: $348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$83
• After-tax cash flow: $2,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully furnished 2-bedroom, 1-bath first-floor condo in the Bison Ranch community is move-in ready and offers a mountain getaway or investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both replace carpet — improves comfort and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both replace carpet — improves comfort and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber-Overgaard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,989

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 7% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.51%
• Current HPI: 358.021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+146.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $132,000 WMMLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $132,000 ARMLS
• 2017-01-20 Sold (MLS) $49,000 ARMLS
• 2015-07-06 Listed $53,500 ARMLS