2633 Dixie Ln

Kissimmee, FL 34744

$274,003D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,150/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax + insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $47/mo
• Annual: $567/yr
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.74%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $76,721

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $274k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($567/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (21.5% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $215k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#181 in FL, #2,841 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, employment D-.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mill Creek Elementary School (math 42% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,454 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 752 students, 59% FRL); Denn John Middle School (math 28% / reading 30%, grade F, #479 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 873 students, 57% FRL); Gateway High School (math 26% / reading 39%, grade F, #411 of 667 statewide, top 62%, 1,726 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 563 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $113k; list at $274k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.5% in Kissimmee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.