2633 Dixie Ln · Kissimmee, FL 34744

$274,003

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1985 7,492 sqft lot Est $353k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring high ceilings and an open, airy floor plan with generous living space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The oversized primary suite offers a walk-in closet and plenty of room to relax. Enjoy outdoor living in the huge fenced backyard complete with a private pool and screened rear porch, ideal for year-round enjoyment. Additional features include a two-car garage and ample yard space for pets, play, or gardening. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major roadways.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Private pool
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• HIGH CEILINGS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• HUGE FENCED BACKYARD
• PRIVATE POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private in-ground pool; Lot approximately 0.17 acres (65 x 115); Asphalt road frontage; Homestead exempt; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Northwest facing; Residential property
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as single-story
• Exterior features: Dog run; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in kitchen; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $274k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($576/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.5% in Kissimmee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#181 in FL, #2,841 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, employment D-.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mill Creek Elementary School (math 42% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,454 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 752 students, 59% FRL); Denn John Middle School (math 28% / reading 30%, grade F, #479 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 873 students, 57% FRL); Gateway High School (math 26% / reading 39%, grade F, #411 of 667 statewide, top 62%, 1,726 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 563 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $113k; list at $274k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,053 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.75%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $353,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2629 Dixie Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+10%)	2mo	$342,000	$243	82
1328 Mill Creek Pl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,285 (+0%)	4mo	$370,000	$288	74
2458 Sable Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-2%)	5mo	$360,000	$286	72
1436 Massa St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-7%)	2mo	$330,000	$277	71
2519 Mill Run Blvd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,174 (-8%)	3mo	$349,000	$297	69
2678 Forest View Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,194 (-7%)	2mo	$350,000	$293	69
1526 Amherst Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,393 (+9%)	3mo	$360,000	$258	68
1329 Cypress Arbor Pl	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,088 (-15%)	2mo	$299,000	$275	61
2195 Wind Jammer Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-5%)	2mo	$291,000	$239	60
1437 Dean B St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,088 (-15%)	6mo	$290,000	$267	59
2679 Forest View Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+10%)	6mo	$390,000	$276	58
2931 Oaktree Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+13%)	2mo	$365,000	$253	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-47,763
• Equity at exit: $40,855

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-62,486
• Equity at exit: $23,691

Cash invested: $76,721 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34744

• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 563
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,151 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,090

Max offer price $274,003

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $126	+0% $48	+5% $-30	+10% $-107
Rent	-10% $-122	-5% $-37	+0% $48	+5% $133	+10% $218
Rate	-1.0pp $186	-0.5pp $118	base $48	+0.5pp $-23	+1.0pp $-95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,501
• Closing costs: $8,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2670 Oak Run Blvd Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1530	$2,450	$1.60	16d	1	0.47mi
2875 Bay Ave Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,900	$1.41	19d	1	0.54mi
2875 Bay Ave Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,900	$1.41	15d	1	0.54mi
2936 Twin Oaks Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1641	$2,150	$1.31	16d	1	0.54mi
2426 Mill Run Blvd Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1140	$2,100	$1.84	6d	1	0.57mi
2409 Brookside Ave Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,306	$1.25	18d	1	0.63mi
1751 Covey Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,425	$1.76	25d	1	0.77mi
613 Carol Ter Kissimmee, FL	3.0	1.0	1574	$1,750	$1.11	16d	1	0.78mi
2329 Pine Tree Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1612	$2,300	$1.43	16d	1	0.86mi
891 Florida Pkwy Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1812	$2,100	$1.16	25d	1	0.90mi
621 Woodland Creek Blvd Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1555	$2,500	$1.61	25d	1	1.02mi
808 Balsamwood Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,300	$2.05	5d	1	1.11mi
109 Alderwood Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1036	$1,685	$1.63	25d	1	1.12mi
2154 Rj Cir Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1224	$2,200	$1.80	4d	1	1.17mi
2305 Cutler Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,979	$1.64	25d	1	1.18mi
1615 Sunburst Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,285	$1.68	25d	1	1.19mi
1815 Michigan Ave Unit C Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,450	$1.30	25d	1	1.21mi
1819 Michigan Ave Unit D Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,500	$1.34	25d	1	1.21mi
1807 Michigan Ave Unit D Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,300	$1.16	25d	1	1.22mi
1807 Michigan Ave Unit D Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,300	$1.16	15d	1	1.22mi
1807 Michigan Ave Unit D Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,295	$1.16	16d	1	1.22mi
1629 Sunburst Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,130	$1.56	0d	1	1.23mi
801 Poplarwood Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,300	$1.65	25d	1	1.23mi
1707 Michigan Ave Unit D Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,325	$1.19	0d	1	1.25mi
1707 Michigan Ave Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,475	$1.32	25d	1	1.25mi
1703 Michigan Ave Unit C Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,350	$1.21	16d	1	1.26mi
1932 Peridot Cir Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,180	$1.35	0d	1	1.28mi
1500 Neo Landings Loop Unit NEO1540114 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,268	$1.60	25d	1	1.29mi
3175 Corporate Center Pkwy Kissimmee, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$2,936	$2.87	0d	100	1.29mi
2151 Ranch Side Rd Kissimmee, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2136	$2,569	$1.20	0d	5	1.33mi
880 E Columbia Ave Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,000	$1.33	25d	1	1.35mi
1500 Neo Landings Loop Unit NEO1520215 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1093	$1,995	$1.83	6d	1	1.37mi
1500 Neo Landings Loop Unit NEO1600207 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$1,550	$1.37	0d	1	1.37mi
1500 Neo Landings Loop Unit NEO1600112 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,179	$1.54	6d	1	1.37mi
1500 Neo Landings Loop Unit NEO1600410 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1093	$1,662	$1.52	23d	1	1.37mi
1500 Neo Landings Loop Unit NEO1600312 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$2,371	$1.51	4d	1	1.37mi
1500 Neo Landings Loop Unit NEO1540314 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$2,359	$1.50	6d	1	1.37mi
236 Red Maple Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1720	$2,135	$1.24	22d	1	1.39mi
350 Buttonwood Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,050	$1.38	12d	1	1.46mi
2627 N Beaumont Ave Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,925	$1.60	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $274,003 Active
3. 2000-07-18
   soldstatus $113,000
4. 1995-04-06
   soldstatus $87,400
5. 1987-07-01
   soldstatus $73,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,198 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,274 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,076/yr (+$90/mo · 89.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,348
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$1,370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,065
• − Management: −$2,065
• − Depreciation: −$7,971
• Taxable loss: −$4,211
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,011
• After-tax cash flow: $1,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kissimmee

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #2841

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kissimmee, FL
• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 196,187
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 66,582
• Household income: $74,537
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2462.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 23% White 21% Black 8% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 32% Cuban 4% Dominican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 40% English-only · Spanish 53% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.17%
• Current HPI: 277.404
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.54%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+275.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $274,003 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records
• 1995-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $87,400 Public Records
• 1987-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,198 · +30.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.