164 Adrian Dr

Stockbridge, GA 30281

$199,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,143 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,707/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$348
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $-48/mo
• Annual: $-576/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.03%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-576/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (14.6% below list).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $171k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#389 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Stockbridge Elementary School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #981 of 1,228 statewide, top 80%, 543 students, 78% FRL); Stockbridge Middle School (math 11% / reading 22%, grade F, #388 of 470 statewide, top 83%, 611 students, 70% FRL); Stockbridge High School (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #284 of 424 statewide, top 67%, 1,543 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 43% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 28% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Henry County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 611 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 15 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $200k implies a 189% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Stockbridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.