3027 Carousel Cir

Stockton, CA 95219

$444,950D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,351 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,339/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,333
• Tax + insurance: −$441
• HOA: −$160
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-1,087/mo
• Annual: $-13,041/yr
• Cap rate: 3.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.47%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $124,586

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $445k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (43.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (47.4% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $234k (47.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.