3027 Carousel Cir · Stockton, CA 95219

$444,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,351 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1993 4,121 sqft lot $329/sqft · 9% below area Est $491k · 9% under $160/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked inside a quiet circle within the Brookside community, this single-story home offers a rare blend of comfort, convenience, and low-maintenance living in one of Stockton's most desirable areas. Inside, the open-concept layout creates a seamless flow among the living, dining, and kitchen spacesideal for both everyday living and casual entertaining. Recent updates include fresh interior paint, durable vinyl flooring throughout, and a refreshed kitchen featuring granite countertops and updated appliances. The primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an updated bathroom with dual sinks, modern fixtures, and a walk-in shower, creating a comfortable and functional retreat. Step outside to a

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Included spa
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• REFRESHED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• INCLUDED SPA
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in Brookside Estates subdivision, Stockton, CA 95219
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Quarterly HOA fee; HOA fee: $480 per quarter; Association offers community amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with interior access; 2-car garage; Garage facing front; Mechanical lift in garage; Downslope driveway/sidewalks
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Cable, DSL, and internet available
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; One story; Built in 1993; Updated/remodeled condition
• Construction: Tile roof; Built in 1993; Detached single-family construction
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Low-maintenance, landscaped front and back yards; Regular-shaped lot; Pergola and shed(s); Tile roof; Spa / personal hot tub

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with shower stall, low-flow shower and toilet, and window; Additional bath with tub/shower over and low-flow fixtures
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Living room fireplace; Covered patio; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet with washer and dryer included; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $445k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (43.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (47.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (47.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,881 (47.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.47%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 15.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $491,090
• List price: $444,950
• Delta: -9.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3027 Carousel Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,351 (0%)	0mo	$453,850	$336	100
2868 Christina Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+3%)	8mo	$399,000	$287	66
3836 Delano Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-8%)	8mo	$420,000	$337	60
2925 De Ovan	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,464 (+8%)	8mo	$357,000	$244	57
2752 Calariva Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,499 (+11%)	2mo	$440,000	$294	56
3355 Clement Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,434 (+6%)	1mo	$445,000	$310	54
5071 Moss Creek Cir	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	4mo	$406,000	$279	52
3634 Whispering Creek Cir	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,493 (+10%)	2mo	$490,000	$328	46
3287 Amberfield Cir	0.73mi	3/3.0	1,461 (+8%)	6mo	$435,000	$298	43
3647 Whispering Creek Cir	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,217 (-10%)	4mo	$347,000	$285	42
3668 Whispering Creek Cir	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,217 (-10%)	7mo	$390,000	$320	39
2848 Inman Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,172 (-13%)	5mo	$380,000	$324	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $175,827
• Equity at exit: $400,846

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.64×
• Total profit: $577,985
• Equity at exit: $864,440

Cash invested: $124,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 15.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,339 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,333
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,068/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-1,087

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,714

Max offer price $252,974

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,238
• Closing costs: $13,348
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2660 Grand Canal Blvd Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5–2.0	1077	$1,972	$1.83	2d	2	0.58mi
2837 Inman Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	1.0	1014	$2,300	$2.27	2d	1	0.59mi
2537 Plymouth Oaks Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,350	$1.57	43d	1	0.59mi
4609 Da Vinci Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.5	1592	$2,000	$1.26	3d	1	0.66mi
5007 Innisbrook Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1723	$3,200	$1.86	43d	1	0.76mi
3936 Dennis Ave Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	1583	$2,625	$1.66	2d	1	0.81mi
5301 Feather River Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$2,575	$3.02	2d	6	0.84mi
2244 Rose Marie Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	790	$2,175	$2.75	2d	18	0.92mi
3303 Franklin Ave Apt 2 Stockton, CA	3.0	1.5	891	$1,295	$1.45	43d	1	1.06mi
3591 Quail Lakes Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	930	$1,595	$1.72	3d	1	1.06mi
3915 Bridlewood Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,795	$1.99	21d	1	1.09mi
2029 Christina Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,350	$1.72	43d	1	1.10mi
5834 Brush Creek Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,295	$2.09	2d	1	1.32mi
5858 Morgan Pl Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	884	$1,872	$2.12	2d	7	1.38mi
6019 Carolina Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1185	$2,300	$1.94	14d	1	1.46mi
6031 Carolina Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,200	$1.77	3d	1	1.46mi
1331 Pinetree Dr #4 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	924	$1,800	$1.95	43d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,068 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,382 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$314/yr (+$26/mo · 10.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,066
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,924
• − Property taxes: −$3,068
• − Insurance: −$2,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,245
• − Management: −$2,245
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$12,944
• Taxable loss: −$21,505
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,161
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,356
• Composite: 29.66/100
• National rank: #6465
• State rank: #284 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,068 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.