433 1/Flynn Ave #2

Burlington, VT 05401

$300,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 981 sqft · Built 1925 · Condo · Active · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,477/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$250
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-367/mo
• Annual: $-4,399/yr
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.24%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $300k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-367 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (17.4% below list).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $247k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in VT, #4,619 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, employment B; Watch: cost of living D, crime F, amenities F.
• Zoned schools: Champlain School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #31 of 192 statewide, top 21%, 548 students, 37% FRL); Lyman C. Hunt Middle School (math 34% / reading 47%, grade F, #13 of 26 statewide, top 52%, 337 students, 49% FRL); Burlington High School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #8 of 48 statewide, top 15%, 987 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 189 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.6% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,477/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Significant damage and potential leaks.
• Major: exterior siding — Peeling paint and siding damage.
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and lack of recent maintenance.