433 1/Flynn Ave #2 · Burlington, VT 05401

$300,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 981 sqft · Condo · 118 Days on market

Built 1925 Fair condition $306/sqft · 23% below area Est $389k · 23% under $250/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Live the highly sought-after South End Burlington lifestyle just minutes from Lake Champlain, Oakledge Park, Red Rocks Park, and the Burlington waterfront bike path in this unique 2-bedroom condo. Located in a small, well-maintained association with low dues, the home offers an easy, low-maintenance lifestyle. The bright second-floor unit features a spacious kitchen with adjacent dining area and a large south-facing picture window that fills the space with natural light. The main level also includes a cozy living room, bedroom, full bathroom with new vanity and counter, and the convenience of in-unit laundry. Upstairs, the second bedroom offers built-in cabinetry and desk space and a separate sitting area—ideal for a home office, reading nook, or flexible living space. The property includes two assigned off-street parking spaces, a private storage shed for bikes and outdoor gear, and access to a shared backyard for relaxing during warmer months. Enjoy close proximity to the Burlington waterfront, Lake Champlain, beaches, parks, breweries, restaurants and downtown, along with easy access to the Burlington bike path, I-89, shopping and schools. Recent improvements include a new Bosch boiler and storm door. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy the South End lifestyle with Lake Champlain, parks and the bike path just moments away. 3D tour available!

Key facts

• Red rocks park
• Cozy living room
• Oakledge park

Tags

• LAKE CHAMPLAIN
• OAKLEDGE PARK
• RED ROCKS PARK
• WELL-MAINTAINED ASSOCIATION
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• COZY LIVING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $300k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-367 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.6% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in VT, #4,619 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, employment B; Watch: cost of living D, crime F, amenities F.
• Zoned schools: Champlain School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #31 of 192 statewide, top 21%, 548 students, 37% FRL); Lyman C. Hunt Middle School (math 34% / reading 47%, grade F, #13 of 26 statewide, top 52%, 337 students, 49% FRL); Burlington High School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #8 of 48 statewide, top 15%, 987 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 189 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,477/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $246,950 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
10. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
11. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.24%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $389,436
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -22.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
195 Ledgewood Cir #102	0.22mi	2/1.5	1,138 (+16%)	0mo	$260,000	$228	63
65 Pine Ledge Ct	0.28mi	2/1.5	1,122 (+14%)	2mo	$405,000	$361	60
64 Pine Ledge Ct	0.28mi	2/1.5	1,122 (+14%)	2mo	$405,000	$361	59
112 S Crest Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+2%)	9mo	$499,000	$499	54
409 Farrell St #203	1.10mi	2/1.0	911 (-7%)	2mo	$247,500	$272	52
35 Baldwin Ave	1.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,065 (+9%)	2mo	$449,900	$422	44
8 Arthur Ct	0.69mi	2/1.5	1,152 (+17%)	3mo	$401,500	$349	38
36 Clymer St	1.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+10%)	4mo	$455,000	$421	36
370 Farrell St #216	1.16mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+12%)	7mo	$340,000	$309	35
370 Farrell St #313	1.16mi	1/1.0 (-1)	760 (-22%)	4mo	$255,000	$336	32
44 Marble Ave #1	1.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,197 (+22%)	7mo	$435,000	$363	29
34 Hoover St	1.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,224 (+25%)	8mo	$500,000	$408	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-77,803
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-120,588
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05401

• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,477 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,941

Max offer price $246,950

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-159	-5% $-263	+0% $-367	+5% $-470	+10% $-574
Rent	-10% $-562	-5% $-464	+0% $-367	+5% $-269	+10% $-171
Rate	-1.0pp $-216	-0.5pp $-290	base $-367	+0.5pp $-444	+1.0pp $-523

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
370 Farrell St South Burlington, VT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1132	$3,000	$2.65	93d	3	1.14mi
1 Olde Orchard Park South Burlington, VT	2.0	1.0	994	$2,100	$2.11	70d	1	1.29mi
304 S Winooski Ave Burlington, VT	3.0	2.0	780	$2,950	$3.78	93d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail $250/mo · $3,000/yr condo

• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-07-14
   days on market $300,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-07-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-07-12
   days on market $300,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-07-11
   days on market $300,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-07-10
   days on market $300,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-07-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-07-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-07-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-07-06
   days on market $300,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-07-05
    days on market $300,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-07-04
    days on market $300,000 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-07-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-07-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-07-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-06-30
    days on market $300,000 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-06-29
    days on market $300,000 Active 103 DOM
17. 2026-06-28
    days on market $300,000 Active 102 DOM
18. 2026-06-28
    days on market $300,000 Active 101 DOM
19. 2026-06-27
    days on market $300,000 Active 100 DOM
20. 2026-06-26
    days on market $300,000 Active 99 DOM
21. 2026-06-23
    days on market $300,000 Active 96 DOM
22. 2026-06-21
    days on market $300,000 Active 95 DOM
23. 2026-06-19
    days on market $300,000 Active 93 DOM
24. 2026-06-18
    days on market $300,000 Active 92 DOM
25. 2026-06-17
    days on market $300,000 Active 91 DOM
26. 2026-06-16
    days on market $300,000 Active 90 DOM
27. 2026-06-15
    days on market $300,000 Active 89 DOM
28. 2026-06-14
    days on market $300,000 Active 87 DOM
29. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $300,000 Active 86 DOM
30. 2026-06-10
    days on market $309,900 Active 84 DOM
31. 2026-06-09
    days on market $309,900 Active 83 DOM
32. 2026-06-08
    days on market $309,900 Active 82 DOM
33. 2026-06-07
    days on market $309,900 Active 81 DOM
34. 2026-06-05
    days on market $309,900 Active 78 DOM
35. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,900 Active 77 DOM
36. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,900 Active 76 DOM
37. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,900 Active 75 DOM
38. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,900 Active 74 DOM
39. 2026-05-30
    days on market $309,900 Active 73 DOM
40. 2026-04-16
    price $309,900 1369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1369 chars)

    Live the highly sought-after South End Burlington lifestyle just minutes from Lake Champlain, Oakledge Park, Red Rocks Park, and the Burlington waterfront bike path in this unique 2-bedroom condo. Located in a small, well-maintained association with low dues, the home offers an easy, low-maintenance lifestyle. The bright second-floor unit features a spacious kitchen with adjacent dining area and a large south-facing picture window that fills the space with natural light. The main level also includes a cozy living room, bedroom, full bathroom with new vanity and counter, and the convenience of in-unit laundry. Upstairs, the second bedroom offers built-in cabinetry and desk space and a separate sitting area—ideal for a home office, reading nook, or flexible living space. The property includes two assigned off-street parking spaces, a private storage shed for bikes and outdoor gear, and access to a shared backyard for relaxing during warmer months. Enjoy close proximity to the Burlington waterfront, Lake Champlain, beaches, parks, breweries, restaurants and downtown, along with easy access to the Burlington bike path, I-89, shopping and schools. Recent improvements include a new Bosch boiler and storm door. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy the South End lifestyle with Lake Champlain, parks and the bike path just moments away. 3D tour available!

41. 2026-04-02
    price $318,500 1369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1369 chars)

    Live the highly sought-after South End Burlington lifestyle just minutes from Lake Champlain, Oakledge Park, Red Rocks Park, and the Burlington waterfront bike path in this unique 2-bedroom condo. Located in a small, well-maintained association with low dues, the home offers an easy, low-maintenance lifestyle. The bright second-floor unit features a spacious kitchen with adjacent dining area and a large south-facing picture window that fills the space with natural light. The main level also includes a cozy living room, bedroom, full bathroom with new vanity and counter, and the convenience of in-unit laundry. Upstairs, the second bedroom offers built-in cabinetry and desk space and a separate sitting area—ideal for a home office, reading nook, or flexible living space. The property includes two assigned off-street parking spaces, a private storage shed for bikes and outdoor gear, and access to a shared backyard for relaxing during warmer months. Enjoy close proximity to the Burlington waterfront, Lake Champlain, beaches, parks, breweries, restaurants and downtown, along with easy access to the Burlington bike path, I-89, shopping and schools. Recent improvements include a new Bosch boiler and storm door. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy the South End lifestyle with Lake Champlain, parks and the bike path just moments away. 3D tour available!

42. 2026-03-18
    listed $325,000 Active 1369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1369 chars)

    Live the highly sought-after South End Burlington lifestyle just minutes from Lake Champlain, Oakledge Park, Red Rocks Park, and the Burlington waterfront bike path in this unique 2-bedroom condo. Located in a small, well-maintained association with low dues, the home offers an easy, low-maintenance lifestyle. The bright second-floor unit features a spacious kitchen with adjacent dining area and a large south-facing picture window that fills the space with natural light. The main level also includes a cozy living room, bedroom, full bathroom with new vanity and counter, and the convenience of in-unit laundry. Upstairs, the second bedroom offers built-in cabinetry and desk space and a separate sitting area—ideal for a home office, reading nook, or flexible living space. The property includes two assigned off-street parking spaces, a private storage shed for bikes and outdoor gear, and access to a shared backyard for relaxing during warmer months. Enjoy close proximity to the Burlington waterfront, Lake Champlain, beaches, parks, breweries, restaurants and downtown, along with easy access to the Burlington bike path, I-89, shopping and schools. Recent improvements include a new Bosch boiler and storm door. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy the South End lifestyle with Lake Champlain, parks and the bike path just moments away. 3D tour available!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,721
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,378
• − Management: −$2,378
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$9,566
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,296
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $24,525–$44,145 screening

The home requires significant repairs to the roof and exterior, as well as landscaping improvements. These updates will significantly increase its value for resale or rental.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage and potential leaks.
• Major exterior siding — Peeling paint and siding damage.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and lack of recent maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof repair — Fixing the roof will address a major issue and improve the home's overall condition. ↑
• Both exterior painting and siding repair — Updating the exterior will improve curb appeal and the home's overall condition. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape will enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Champlain School C VT #31/192 Nat'l #9,801/41,679 Middle Edmunds Middle School C VT #8/26 Nat'l #3,585/14,009 High Burlington High School D VT #8/48 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment B Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burlington, VT
• County: Chittenden County · 170,769 people
• City population: 31,662
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• Population (ZIP): 31,662
• Household income: $65,657
• Rent vs Own: 68.6% rent · 31.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Chittenden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 170,769 people
• By 2030: 174,716 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 180,337 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 183,768 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 194,646 · +14.0%
• By 2100: 194,933 · +14.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Chittenden

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 75.4% · R 21.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+54.5 2016: D+46.8 2012: D+41.9 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -316.87%
• Current HPI: 352.2081
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $309,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $318,500 PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $325,000 PrimeMLS