307 N Warner St

Bay City, MI 48706

$134,900C

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,492 sqft · Built 1870 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,429/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax + insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $198/mo
• Annual: $2,376/yr
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.29%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $37,772

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 248 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $94k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 6.5% in Bay City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.