307 N Warner St · Bay City, MI 48706

$134,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,492 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1870 4,791 sqft lot Est $146k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This four bedroom home is nestled on the Westside of Bay City. You will be first welcomed by an inviting front porch and once inside there are four bedrooms to appreciate as well as nice cove ceilings in the living room and a knotty pine family room. The home features central air, a garage, full bath and vinyl windows. All this for $79,900!

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1870

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 1 garage parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; 1-story structure; Built in 1870
• Construction: Basement foundation; Full basement
• Exterior features: Aluminum exterior; Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen, approximately 12 x 9; Laminate kitchen flooring
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedrooms (4): 9 x 13 (carpet); 10 x 10 (laminate); W=13 (carpet); 15 x 14 (carpet)
• Flooring: Carpet in most bedrooms; Laminate in one bedroom and the kitchen; Wood flooring in the living room
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One lavatory (total 3 baths/lavatories); Main-level bath and lavatory; additional bath in basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Total of 8 rooms; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement level utilities

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.6% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 248 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $94k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $134,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.29%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $146,216
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 N Warner St	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,492 (0%)	0mo	$142,000	$95	96
506 LITCHFIELD St	0.60mi	4/1.0	1,422 (-5%)	0mo	$119,900	$84	62
811 N Walnut St	0.66mi	4/1.0	1,416 (-5%)	0mo	$130,000	$92	59
714 Frost Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+0%)	5mo	$178,000	$119	57
514 S Kiesel St	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,526 (+2%)	4mo	$150,000	$98	57
316 S Woodbridge Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,418 (-5%)	2mo	$65,000	$46	56
700 E Fulton St	0.69mi	4/1.0	1,406 (-6%)	1mo	$103,000	$73	56
4551 Westfield Ct	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,380 (-8%)	1mo	$174,000	$126	52
709 N Wenona Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,436 (-4%)	2mo	$30,000	$21	50
104 King St	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,600 (+7%)	3mo	$159,900	$100	50
605 HANDY Dr	0.44mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,278 (-14%)	4mo	$220,000	$172	48
109 Englehardt Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+13%)	1mo	$301,000	$179	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-9,230
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $8,282
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,429 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,004/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,178

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $274	-5% $236	+0% $198	+5% $160	+10% $122
Rent	-10% $85	-5% $142	+0% $198	+5% $254	+10% $311
Rate	-1.0pp $266	-0.5pp $232	base $198	+0.5pp $163	+1.0pp $127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-23
   historical $134,900
2. 2024-02-23
   soldstatus $94,000 Closed 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   This four bedroom home is nestled on the Westside of Bay City. You will be first welcomed by an inviting front porch and once inside there are four bedrooms to appreciate as well as nice cove ceilings in the living room and a knotty pine family room. The home features central air, a garage, full bath and vinyl windows. All this for $79,900!

3. 2024-02-23
   soldstatus $94,000

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   This four bedroom home is nestled on the Westside of Bay City. You will be first welcomed by an inviting front porch and once inside there are four bedrooms to appreciate as well as nice cove ceilings in the living room and a knotty pine family room. The home features central air, a garage, full bath and vinyl windows. All this for $79,900!

4. 2024-01-26
   status Pending 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   This four bedroom home is nestled on the Westside of Bay City. You will be first welcomed by an inviting front porch and once inside there are four bedrooms to appreciate as well as nice cove ceilings in the living room and a knotty pine family room. The home features central air, a garage, full bath and vinyl windows. All this for $79,900!

5. 2024-01-22
   listed $79,900 Active 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   This four bedroom home is nestled on the Westside of Bay City. You will be first welcomed by an inviting front porch and once inside there are four bedrooms to appreciate as well as nice cove ceilings in the living room and a knotty pine family room. The home features central air, a garage, full bath and vinyl windows. All this for $79,900!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,004 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,041 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$37/yr (+$3/mo · 1.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,004
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,372
• − Management: −$1,372
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $241
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$58
• After-tax cash flow: $2,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+68.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Coming Soon $134,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-23 Sold (MLS) $94,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-26 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-22 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,004 · +42.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.