1333 Falling Leaf Ln

Buchanan, VA 24122

$98,400B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Pending · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,817/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$516
• Tax + insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $756/mo
• Annual: $9,069/yr
• Cap rate: 15.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.92%
• DSCR: 2.46
• 1% rule: 1.85%
• Cash to close: $27,552

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $756 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($680 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#244 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bedford County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #41 of 131 in VA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montvale Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 253 students, 87% FRL); Liberty Middle (math 49% / reading 67%, grade B, #174 of 342 statewide, top 51%, 535 students, 86% FRL); Liberty High (math 41% / reading 68%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 726 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 30% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bedford County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 9% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $80k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.