1333 Falling Leaf Ln · Buchanan, VA 24122

$98,400

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · SingleFamily · 108 Days on market

Built 2006 5.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Peaceful, country living, off Goose Creek Valley Rd. in Bedford County. This property has 5.45 acres with gorgeous views, a 2006 Clayton single wide, with two bedrooms, 2 full baths, living, kitchen and dining area all together, metal roof, great deck along the length of the home. Property does have an older home that is not habitable and would make a great place for future building site. This property has a Home Choice Warranty, good until 2/26 that includes the well and septic, also a gas generator conveys. Sold ''As Is''.

Key facts

• Amazing views
• Generator conveys
• Secluded acres

Tags

• SECLUDED ACRES
• AMAZING VIEWS
• TONS OF WILDLIFE
• GENERATOR CONVEYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing price provided separately

Exterior

• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2006
• Construction: Built in 2006
• Exterior features: Approximately 5.45-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (electric) for heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Insulated storm door; Carpet flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $756 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#244 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bedford County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #41 of 131 in VA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montvale Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 253 students, 87% FRL); Liberty Middle (math 49% / reading 67%, grade B, #174 of 342 statewide, top 51%, 535 students, 86% FRL); Liberty High (math 41% / reading 68%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 726 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 30% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($680 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Bedford County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 9% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $80k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,544 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.92%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $69,799
• Equity at exit: $54,650

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.17×
• Total profit: $169,960
• Equity at exit: $93,412

Cash invested: $27,552 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24122

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,817 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$516
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$123 /mo · $1,476/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $756

Break-even live

Break-even rent $861

Max offer price $98,400

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $824	-5% $790	+0% $756	+5% $722	+10% $688
Rent	-10% $612	-5% $684	+0% $756	+5% $828	+10% $899
Rate	-1.0pp $805	-0.5pp $781	base $756	+0.5pp $730	+1.0pp $704

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,600
• Closing costs: $2,952
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   status Active
3. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-28
   status Active
5. 2026-01-28
   price $98,400
6. 2025-12-17
   status Pending
7. 2025-11-26
   listed $90,000 Active
8. 2025-05-12
   soldstatus $80,000 Closed 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   Peaceful, country living, off Goose Creek Valley Road in Bedford County. This property has 5.45 acres with gorgeous views, a 2006 Clayton single wide, with 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, living, kitchen and dining area all together, metal roof, great deck along the length of the home. Property does have an older home that is not inhabitable and would make a great place for future building site. This property has a Home Choice Warranty, good until 2/26 that includes the well and septic, and also a gas generator conveys. Sold As Is.

9. 2025-05-12
   soldstatus $80,000 Closed 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   Peaceful, country living, off Goose Creek Valley Road in Bedford County. This property has 5.45 acres with gorgeous views, a 2006 Clayton single wide, with 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, living, kitchen and dining area all together, metal roof, great deck along the length of the home. Property does have an older home that is not inhabitable and would make a great place for future building site. This property has a Home Choice Warranty, good until 2/26 that includes the well and septic, and also a gas generator conveys. Sold As Is.

10. 2025-04-16
    status Pending 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    Peaceful, country living, off Goose Creek Valley Rd. in Bedford County. This property has 5.45 acres with gorgeous views, a 2006 Clayton single wide, with two bedrooms, 2 full baths, living, kitchen and dining area all together, metal roof, great deck along the length of the home. Property does have an older home that is not habitable and would make a great place for future building site. This property has a Home Choice Warranty, good until 2/26 that includes the well and septic, also a gas generator conveys. Sold ''As Is''.

11. 2025-04-16
    status Pending 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    Peaceful, country living, off Goose Creek Valley Rd. in Bedford County. This property has 5.45 acres with gorgeous views, a 2006 Clayton single wide, with two bedrooms, 2 full baths, living, kitchen and dining area all together, metal roof, great deck along the length of the home. Property does have an older home that is not habitable and would make a great place for future building site. This property has a Home Choice Warranty, good until 2/26 that includes the well and septic, also a gas generator conveys. Sold ''As Is''.

12. 2025-04-10
    listed $82,500 Active 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    Peaceful, country living, off Goose Creek Valley Road in Bedford County. This property has 5.45 acres with gorgeous views, a 2006 Clayton single wide, with 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, living, kitchen and dining area all together, metal roof, great deck along the length of the home. Property does have an older home that is not inhabitable and would make a great place for future building site. This property has a Home Choice Warranty, good until 2/26 that includes the well and septic, and also a gas generator conveys. Sold As Is.

13. 2025-04-10
    listed $82,500 Active 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    Peaceful, country living, off Goose Creek Valley Road in Bedford County. This property has 5.45 acres with gorgeous views, a 2006 Clayton single wide, with 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, living, kitchen and dining area all together, metal roof, great deck along the length of the home. Property does have an older home that is not inhabitable and would make a great place for future building site. This property has a Home Choice Warranty, good until 2/26 that includes the well and septic, and also a gas generator conveys. Sold As Is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,512
• − Property taxes: −$1,476
• − Insurance: −$492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,745
• − Management: −$1,745
• − Depreciation: −$2,863
• Taxable income: $7,978
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,915
• After-tax cash flow: $7,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bedford County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100360
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $56,288
• Composite: 54.92/100
• National rank: #1310
• State rank: #41 of 131 in VA

Livability — Buchanan

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #8227

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,234
• Population (ZIP): 1,421

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,194 people
• By 2030: 85,499 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 88,834 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 90,060 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 94,131 · +13.1%
• By 2100: 89,832 · +8.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 8% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.4) · D 24.4% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -50.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.4 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+45.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.81%
• Current HPI: 312.5895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+19.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-04-21 Relisted — MLSRV
• 2026-04-17 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-01-28 Relisted — MLSRV
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $98,400 MLSRV
• 2025-12-17 Pending — MLSRV
• 2025-11-26 Listed $90,000 MLSRV
• 2025-05-12 Sold (MLS) $80,000 LMLS
• 2025-05-12 Sold (MLS) $80,000 MLSRV
• 2025-04-16 Pending — LMLS
• 2025-04-16 Pending — MLSRV
• 2025-04-10 Listed $82,500 LMLS
• 2025-04-10 Listed $82,500 MLSRV