5948 Lexington Dr

Hope Mills, NC 28348

$224,900F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,075 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,542/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax + insurance: −$284
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-245/mo
• Annual: $-2,944/yr
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.68%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $62,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (31.4% below list).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: C Wayne Collier Elementary (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,410 statewide, top 77%, 526 students, 99% FRL); Hope Mills Middle (math 27% / reading 34%, grade F, #331 of 475 statewide, top 70%, 514 students, 99% FRL); South View High (math 60% / reading 43%, grade D+, #299 of 535 statewide, top 56%, 1,502 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 55% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $225k implies a 165% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?