5948 Lexington Dr · Hope Mills, NC 28348

$224,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,075 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1971 0.30 ac lot Est $181k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-In Ready Brick Ranch in a Prime Location!Welcome home to this charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath brick ranch that's ready for you to move right in! Enjoy relaxing on the welcoming front porch or take advantage of the single attached garage with an extended concrete driveway--perfect for extra parking. Inside, the open-concept layout features a spacious living room with a cozy fireplace, seamlessly connected to a generous kitchen and dining area--ideal for gatherings and everyday living. Step outside to a covered back porch and additional deck space, overlooking a fully fenced backyard--perfect for entertaining, pets, or play with a above ground pool. Additional updates include a new roof (2020

Key facts

• Front porch
• Cozy fireplace
• Brick ranch

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• FRONT PORCH
• SINGLE ATTACHED GARAGE
• EXTENDED CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COZY FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: - Single-family property
• Construction: - Built in 2000

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: C Wayne Collier Elementary (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,410 statewide, top 77%, 526 students, 99% FRL); Hope Mills Middle (math 27% / reading 34%, grade F, #331 of 475 statewide, top 70%, 514 students, 99% FRL); South View High (math 60% / reading 43%, grade D+, #299 of 535 statewide, top 56%, 1,502 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 55% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $225k implies a 165% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,245 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.68%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3656 Metric Dr	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,056 (-2%)	4mo	$195,000	$185	81
5936 Fairway Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,025 (-5%)	5mo	$200,000	$195	80
3616 Metric Dr	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,101 (+2%)	5mo	$182,000	$165	77
3225 Glenmore St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,099 (+2%)	3mo	$145,000	$132	77
3660 Metric Dr	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,038 (-3%)	8mo	$189,900	$183	75
6086 Lexington Dr	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,051 (-2%)	3mo	$160,000	$152	74
3717 Colonial Cv	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,060 (-1%)	6mo	$179,500	$169	71
5915 Spinner Rd	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,038 (-3%)	3mo	$188,000	$181	68
3213 Old Oak Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,053 (-2%)	11mo	$175,700	$167	68
3737 Colonial Cv	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,060 (-1%)	11mo	$178,000	$168	64
5983 Richfield Ave	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,056 (-2%)	6mo	$173,000	$164	64
6208 Birchbrook Dr	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,015 (-6%)	4mo	$168,000	$166	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-50,089
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-55,394
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28348

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,542 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,289/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,853

Max offer price $181,561

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-118	-5% $-182	+0% $-245	+5% $-309	+10% $-373
Rent	-10% $-367	-5% $-306	+0% $-245	+5% $-184	+10% $-123
Rate	-1.0pp $-132	-0.5pp $-188	base $-245	+0.5pp $-304	+1.0pp $-363

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3506 Shipstone Pl Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	1280	$1,380	$1.08	15d	3	0.13mi
3636 Metric Dr Hope Mills, NC	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	15d	1	0.25mi
3511 Birchfield Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0–3.0	2.0	1270	$1,685	$1.33	15d	5	0.56mi
3766 Colonial Cv Hope Mills, NC	3.0	1.5	1475	$1,445	$0.98	15d	1	0.60mi
3462 Marty Cir Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,250	$1.12	25d	1	0.67mi
1514 Aristo Pl Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	15d	1	0.69mi
3332 Kenmont Ln Unit E Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,150	$1.05	25d	1	0.93mi
5693A Archer Rd Hope Mills, NC	2.0	1.5	874	$1,100	$1.26	15d	1	1.04mi
5715 Walkabout Rd Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,675	$1.47	25d	1	1.20mi
3916 Middle St Hope Mills, NC	2.0	1.0	905	$1,115	$1.23	15d	1	1.29mi
4240 High Stakes Cir Parkton, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,625	$1.62	15d	9	1.34mi
2935 Chillingworth Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1403	$1,750	$1.25	15d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,900 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $224,900 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $224,900 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $224,900 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $224,900 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $224,900 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $224,900 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-03-06
    listed $224,900 Active
11. 2025-09-23
    listed $224,900 Active
12. 2025-07-15
    listed $229,090 Active
13. 2020-10-07
    soldstatus $85,000
14. 2004-10-15
    soldstatus $41,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,289 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,289 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$2,289
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$7,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,681
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hope Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #10761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hope Mills, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 39,196
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 39,196
• Household income: $66,129
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 746.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.14%
• Current HPI: 228.3122
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.28%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+441.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $224,900 TMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $224,900 LPRMLS
• 2025-07-15 Listed $229,090 LPRMLS
• 2020-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,289 · +44.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.