121 Bent Creek Cir

Battlement Mesa, CO 81635

$81,900A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,286/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$429
• Tax + insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $530/mo
• Annual: $6,359/yr
• Cap rate: 14.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.73%
• DSCR: 2.23
• 1% rule: 1.57%
• Cash to close: $22,932

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $82k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $530 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $81k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($566 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#287 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Grand Valley School District No. 16 In The County Of Garfi (town): math 18% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #72 of 86 in CO (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bea Underwood Elementary School (math 22% / reading 12%, grade F, #772 of 966 statewide, top 81%, 369 students, 62% FRL); Grand Valley Middle School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #207 of 270 statewide, top 79%, 241 students, 52% FRL); Grand Valley High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #244 of 381 statewide, top 66%, 317 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 171 units permitted in Garfield County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Garfield County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 1.8% in Battlement Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.