121 Bent Creek Cir · Battlement Mesa, CO 81635

$81,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2001 Est $116k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This move-in-ready home has great views, a fenced yard, a new roof in 2024, and was recently painted. Upgrades include new skirting, a new stove, and electricity in the shed. First-time home buyer? Tired of renting? This home is affordable and available now. Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• New stove
• Fenced yard
• New skirting

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• NEW ROOF
• NEW SKIRTING
• NEW STOVE
• ELECTRICITY IN THE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $530 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 1.8% in Battlement Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#287 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Grand Valley School District No. 16 In The County Of Garfi (town): math 18% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #72 of 86 in CO (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bea Underwood Elementary School (math 22% / reading 12%, grade F, #772 of 966 statewide, top 81%, 369 students, 62% FRL); Grand Valley Middle School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #207 of 270 statewide, top 79%, 241 students, 52% FRL); Grand Valley High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #244 of 381 statewide, top 66%, 317 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 171 units permitted in Garfield County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($566 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Garfield County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,671 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.73%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $116,416
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Bent Creek Cir	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,108 (+2%)	2mo	$127,500	$115	92
244 Bent Creek Cir	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+3%)	1mo	$125,000	$112	91
58 Logans Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,110 (+2%)	2mo	$93,000	$84	85
103 Bent Creek Cir	0.02mi	3/1.5	1,013 (-7%)	8mo	$109,072	$108	80
104 Mahogany Cir	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,125 (+3%)	2mo	$105,000	$93	79
205 Bent Creek Cir	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,170 (+8%)	8mo	$132,000	$113	77
52 N Emerald Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+6%)	2mo	$170,000	$148	67
116 Iron Wedge Cir	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+3%)	6mo	$118,000	$105	67
11 Silverton Pl	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,184 (+9%)	1mo	$117,500	$99	64
28 Iron Wedge Cir	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+3%)	5mo	$119,000	$106	63
88 W Carson Cir	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+3%)	7mo	$120,000	$107	62
181 Silver Queen Cir	0.47mi	3/2.0	924 (-15%)	2mo	$80,000	$87	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.42×
• Total profit: $78,328
• Equity at exit: $73,782

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.90×
• Total profit: $204,063
• Equity at exit: $159,114

Cash invested: $22,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81635

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,286 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$429
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $273/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $530

Break-even live

Break-even rent $616

Max offer price $81,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $576	-5% $553	+0% $530	+5% $507	+10% $484
Rent	-10% $428	-5% $479	+0% $530	+5% $581	+10% $632
Rate	-1.0pp $571	-0.5pp $551	base $530	+0.5pp $509	+1.0pp $487

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,475
• Closing costs: $2,457
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $81,900 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $81,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $81,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $81,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   status $81,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   This move-in-ready home has great views, a fenced yard, a new roof in 2024, and was recently painted. Upgrades include new skirting, a new stove, and electricity in the shed. First-time home buyer? Tired of renting? This home is affordable and available now. Schedule your showing today.

7. 2026-04-23
   listed $81,900 Active 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   This move-in-ready home has great views, a fenced yard, a new roof in 2024, and was recently painted. Upgrades include new skirting, a new stove, and electricity in the shed. First-time home buyer? Tired of renting? This home is affordable and available now. Schedule your showing today.

8. 2021-09-29
   soldstatus $350,000
9. 2006-09-22
   listed $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $273 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $450 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: +$177/yr (+$15/mo · 65.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,588
• − Property taxes: −$273
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,235
• − Management: −$1,235
• − Depreciation: −$2,383
• Taxable income: $5,315
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,276
• After-tax cash flow: $5,084/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grand Valley School District No. 16 In The County Of Garfi
• NCES district ID: 0804380
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,301
• Composite: 19.2/100
• National rank: #8815
• State rank: #72 of 86 in CO

Livability — Battlement Mesa

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #287
• US rank: #20600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Battlement Mesa, CO
• Population (ZIP): 7,155

Population outlook (Garfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,756 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 64,952 · +5.2%
• By 2050: 64,937 · +5.2%
• By 2075: 62,413 · +1.1%
• By 2100: 55,730 · -9.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Garfield

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 47.7% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: -0.0pp · 2024: 2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.1 2020: D+2.3 2016: R+7.1 2012: R+4.9 2008: R+0.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.90%
• Current HPI: 434.5219
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+110.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — AGMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $81,900 AGMLS
• 2021-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 2006-09-22 Listed $39,000 cren

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $273 · +389.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.