161 Jefferson Ave

Downingtown, PA 19335

$215,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 738 sqft · Built 1920 · Townhouse · Pending · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,412/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$352
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $426/mo
• Annual: $5,109/yr
• Cap rate: 8.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.59%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#13 in PA, #56 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+.
• Downingtown Area SD (suburban): math 67% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #9 of 539 in PA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 232 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,513 units permitted in Chester County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chester County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $215k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.1% in Downingtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.