2902 River Juniper Ln

Crosby, TX 77532

$394,385F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,582 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,332/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,100
• Tax + insurance: −$818
• HOA: −$63
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-2,139/mo
• Annual: $-25,668/yr
• Cap rate: 1.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.51%
• DSCR: 0.31
• 1% rule: 0.39%
• Cash to close: $165,533

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $394k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-26k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (45.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (40.9% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (45.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Highpoint School East (Crosby) (20 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1919 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 4.7% in Crosby — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.