Is 2902 River Juniper Ln in Crosby, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 2.0% cap rate and $-2,139/mo modeled cash flow at a $394,385 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2902 River Juniper Ln?

The modeled cap rate is 2.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,332/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 24.13

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Schools +3.7/10.0
Livability +3.0/5.0
Rent growth +2.9/5.0
Cash flow +2.2/30.0
1% rule +0.0/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$394,385

2902 River Juniper Ln · Crosby, TX 77532

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,582 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,600 sqft lot Garage $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to Sundance Cove in Crosby, Texas—a beautiful new community that offers serene countryside living with quick access to Lake Houston and nearby city conveniences. This stunning new single-story Harding plan features 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, a private enclosed office, and impressive high ceilings throughout. Seamless indoor-outdoor living is enhanced by a large sliding glass door leading to the spacious covered patio—ideal for entertaining or everyday relaxation. The gourmet kitchen is appointed with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops.

Key facts

Gourmet kitchen
Granite countertops
6,600 sq ft lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $394k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-26k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (45.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (40.9% below list).
Recommended offer: $213k (45.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 4.7% in Crosby — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Highpoint School East (Crosby) (20 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1919 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,327 (45.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.39% ✗
Cap rate: 1.95%
Cash-on-cash: -15.51%
DSCR: 0.31
GRM: 21.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $591,190
List price: $394,385
Delta: -33.29%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18433 Adlong Johnson Rd	0.28mi	4/3.5	3,212 (+24%)	9mo	$475,000	$148	52
17802 Ramsey Rd	0.98mi	4/2.5	2,360 (-9%)	17mo	$540,000	$229	34
3926 Sherri Ln	1.36mi	4/2.5	2,443 (-5%)	27mo	$566,000	$232	34
4004 Gatewood Rd	1.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,016 (-22%)	2mo	$389,900	$193	30
4015 Sherri Ln	1.46mi	4/2.5	2,350 (-9%)	32mo	$530,000	$226	28
17205 Adlong School Rd	1.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,968 (-24%)	10mo	$615,000	$313	24
4007 Sherri Ln	1.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,272 (-12%)	17mo	$485,000	$213	24
4015 Sherri Ln	1.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,222 (-14%)	17mo	$524,999	$236	21
4001 Lord Rd	1.28mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,060 (+18%)	27mo	$594,900	$194	13

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -47.8%
Equity multiple: -0.42×
Total profit: $-235,574
Equity at exit: $88,148

10-year hold

IRR: —
Equity multiple: -1.38×
Total profit: $-394,657
Equity at exit: $51,115

Cash invested: $165,533 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

Home prices YoY: -28.6%
Rents YoY: 1.5%
Active inventory: 1919
Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,332 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$3,100
Tax from tax record: −$572 /mo · $6,859/yr
Insurance: −$246
HOA: −$63
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
Net cashflow: $-2,139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,040

Max offer price $213,327

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,804	-5% $-1,972	+0% $-2,139	+5% $-2,306	+10% $-2,474
Rent	-10% $-2,323	-5% $-2,231	+0% $-2,139	+5% $-2,047	+10% $-1,955
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,841	-0.5pp $-1,989	base $-2,139	+0.5pp $-2,292	+1.0pp $-2,448

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $147,797
Closing costs: $17,736
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Annual association fee of $750Community pool, curbs, and gutters

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
Security: Prewired securitySmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: South-facing
Construction: New construction, built in 2026Brick and cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features: Covered patio and deckFenced backyard

Interior

Kitchen: Dishwasher, disposal, gas range, microwave, and ovenENERGY STAR-qualified appliances
Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms, all on the first floor
Flooring: Carpet, plank, tile, and vinyl flooring
Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central electric heatingCentral air conditioning, gas cooling, and attic fan
Interior features: Insulated doorsDouble vanityGranite countersHigh ceilingsPantryTub and showerWalk-in closetCeiling fansKitchen and dining comboLiving and dining roomProgrammable thermostatLow-emissivity windows
Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $394,385 Active 31 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $394,385 Active 30 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $394,385 Active 29 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $394,385 Active 28 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $394,385 Active 27 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $394,385 Active 25 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $394,385 Active 24 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $394,385 Active 23 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $394,385 Active 22 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $394,385 Active 21 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $394,385 Active 20 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $394,385 Active 19 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $394,385 Active 18 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $394,385 Active 17 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $394,385 Active 16 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $394,385 Active 15 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $394,385 Active 14 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $394,385 Active 13 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $394,385 Active 12 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $394,385 Active 11 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $394,385 Active 10 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $394,385 Active 9 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $394,385 Active 8 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $394,385 Active 7 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $394,385 Active 6 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $394,385 Active 5 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $394,385 Active 4 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $394,385 Active 3 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $394,385 Active 2 DOM
2026-10-09

remarks 687-char remark
2026-10-09

pricedays on marketlisting id $394,385 Active 1 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $362,464 Active 196 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $362,464 Active 195 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $362,464 Active 194 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $362,464 Active 193 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $362,464 Active 192 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $362,464 Active 191 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $362,464 Active 190 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $362,464 Active 189 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $362,464 Active 188 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $362,464 Active 187 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $362,464 Active 186 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $362,464 Active 185 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $362,464 Active 184 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $362,464 Active 183 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $362,464 Active 182 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $362,464 Active 181 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $362,464 Active 180 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $362,464 Active 179 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $362,464 Active 178 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $6,859 · $572/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $7,217 · $601/mo
Expected delta: +$358/yr (+$30/mo · 5.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $27,983
− Mortgage interest: −$33,116
− Property taxes: −$6,859
− Insurance: −$2,956
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,239
− Management: −$2,239
− HOA: −$756
− Depreciation: −$17,198
Taxable loss: −$37,380

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,971
After-tax cash flow: $-16,697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with new finishes and features, making it move-in ready and highly attractive for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
Both Interior finishing touches — Improves the home's aesthetic and functionality, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes the spaces and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Crosby Kindergarten Center Middle Crosby Middle F TX #786/1,662 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Highpoint School East (Crosby)

Schools (NCES district)

District: Crosby ISD
NCES district ID: 4815750
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $61,079
Composite: 35.14/100
National rank: #5012
State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

Score: 59/100
State rank: #1121
US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
City population: 33,780
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 33,780
Household income: $92,201
Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
Current HPI: 264.0126
Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

2026-10-08 Listed $394,385 HARMLS
2026-10-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-03-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-03-26 Listed $362,464 HARMLS
2026-03-12 Price Changed $362,464 HARMLS
2026-01-29 Price Changed $387,366 HARMLS
2026-01-05 Price Changed $404,018 HARMLS
2025-12-17 Listed $392,711 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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