Is 2902 River Juniper Ln in Crosby, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 3.7% cap rate and $-790/mo modeled cash flow at a $362,464 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2902 River Juniper Ln?

The modeled cap rate is 3.7% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,251/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D- Composite 36.88

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +5.4/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Schools +4.5/10.0
Livability +3.0/5.0
Rent growth +2.9/5.0
1% rule +1.2/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$362,464

2902 River Juniper Ln · Crosby, TX 77532

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,548 sqft · SingleFamily · 135 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 6,600 sqft lot $142/sqft · 49% below area Est $710k · 49% under $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Sundance Cove in Crosby, Texas—a beautiful new community that offers serene countryside living with quick access to Lake Houston and nearby city conveniences. This stunning new single-story Harding plan features 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, a private enclosed office, and impressive high ceilings throughout. Seamless indoor-outdoor living is enhanced by a large sliding glass door leading to the spacious covered patio—ideal for entertaining or everyday relaxation. The gourmet kitchen is appointed with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and tall 42" custom cabinetry. Elegant laminate flooring flows through the main living areas, complemented by durable tile in wet zones for easy maintenance. The luxurious primary suite includes a generous walk-in closet, spa-like super shower with built-in bench, and dual vanities. Brand-new construction ready for move-in Spring 2026. Don’t miss this exceptional home in one of Crosby’s premier communities!

Key facts

Gourmet kitchen
Lake houston access
Granite countertops

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $362k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-790 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (31.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (37.9% below list).
Recommended offer: $225k (37.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 4.8% in Crosby — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1446 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,090 (37.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.62% ✗
Cap rate: 3.68%
Cash-on-cash: -9.34%
DSCR: 0.58
GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $709,817
List price: $362,464
Delta: -48.94%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17802 Ramsey Rd	0.98mi	4/2.5	2,360 (-7%)	14mo	$540,000	$229	39
3926 Sherri Ln	1.36mi	4/2.5	2,443 (-4%)	24mo	$566,000	$232	36
19197 Ramsey Rd	0.85mi	4/3.0	2,400 (-6%)	33mo	$729,900	$304	35
4015 Sherri Ln	1.46mi	4/2.5	2,350 (-8%)	28mo	$530,000	$226	30
4007 Sherri Ln	1.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,272 (-11%)	14mo	$485,000	$213	28
17205 Adlong School Rd	1.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,968 (-23%)	7mo	$615,000	$313	27
4015 Sherri Ln	1.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,222 (-13%)	14mo	$524,999	$236	25
4001 Lord Rd	1.28mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,060 (+20%)	24mo	$594,900	$194	13

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -34.6%
Equity multiple: -0.11×
Total profit: $-112,350
Equity at exit: $54,045

10-year hold

IRR: -55.9%
Equity multiple: -0.73×
Total profit: $-175,798
Equity at exit: $31,339

Cash invested: $101,490 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 1 active
Median asking: $775,000 ($323/sqft)
Median days on market: 45 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: -13.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

Home prices YoY: -28.6%
Rents YoY: 1.5%
Active inventory: 1446
Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,251 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,901
Tax est. 1.5%: −$453 /mo · $5,437/yr
Insurance: −$151
HOA: −$63
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
Net cashflow: $-790

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,251

Max offer price $248,194

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-539	-5% $-664	+0% $-790	+5% $-915	+10% $-1,040
Rent	-10% $-968	-5% $-879	+0% $-790	+5% $-701	+10% $-612
Rate	-1.0pp $-607	-0.5pp $-698	base $-790	+0.5pp $-884	+1.0pp $-979

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $90,616
Closing costs: $10,874
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $362,464 Active 135 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $362,464 Active 133 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $362,464 Active 132 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $362,464 Active 131 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $362,464 Active 130 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $362,464 Active 127 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $362,464 Active 126 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $362,464 Active 125 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $362,464 Active 124 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $362,464 Active 122 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $362,464 Active 120 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $362,464 Active 119 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $362,464 Active 118 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $362,464 Active 117 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $362,464 Active 116 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $362,464 Active 114 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $362,464 Active 113 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $362,464 Active 112 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $362,464 Active 111 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $362,464 Active 110 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $362,464 Active 109 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $362,464 Active 108 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $362,464 Active 107 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $362,464 Active 106 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $362,464 Active 105 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $362,464 Active 103 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $362,464 Active 102 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $362,464 Active 101 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $362,464 Active 100 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $362,464 Active 99 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $362,464 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $362,464 Active 97 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $362,464 Active 96 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $362,464 Active 95 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $362,464 Active 94 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $362,464 Active 93 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $362,464 Active 90 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $362,464 Active 88 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $362,464 Active 87 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $362,464 Active 84 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $362,464 Active 83 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $362,464 Active 82 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $362,464 Active 81 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $362,464 Active 79 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $362,464 Active 75 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $362,464 Active 74 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $362,464 Active 73 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $362,464 Active 70 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $362,464 Active 69 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $362,464 Active 68 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $27,011
− Mortgage interest: −$20,304
− Property taxes: −$5,437
− Insurance: −$1,812
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,161
− Management: −$2,161
− HOA: −$756
− Depreciation: −$10,544
Taxable loss: −$16,164

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,879
After-tax cash flow: $-5,597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with new finishes and features, making it move-in ready and highly attractive for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
Both Interior finishing touches — Improves the home's aesthetic and functionality, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes the spaces and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Crosby Kindergarten Center High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Crosby ISD
NCES district ID: 4815750
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $61,079
Composite: 35.14/100
National rank: #5012
State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

Score: 59/100
State rank: #1121
US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
City population: 33,780
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 33,780
Household income: $92,201
Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
Current HPI: 264.0126
Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

2026-03-26 Listed $362,464 HARMLS
2026-03-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-03-12 Price Changed $362,464 HARMLS
2026-01-29 Price Changed $387,366 HARMLS
2026-01-05 Price Changed $404,018 HARMLS
2025-12-17 Listed $392,711 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…