3174 Jack Springs Rd

Atmore, AL 36502

$169,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,343 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Pending · 618 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,554/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $59/mo
• Annual: $713/yr
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.51%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($713/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (8.1% below list).
• It's been on market 618 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#530 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia County (town): math 17% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #83 of 129 in AL (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rachel Patterson Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #296 of 627 statewide, top 49%, 532 students, 77% FRL); Escambia County Middle School (math 8% / reading 28%, grade F, #197 of 257 statewide, top 77%, 516 students, 94% FRL); Escambia County High School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #276 of 305 statewide, top 95%, 399 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 70% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 618 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.