165 Carousel Ave

Pioneer, FL 33935

$279,999D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,437/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$467
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-10/mo
• Annual: $-120/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-120/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (13.0% below list).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $244k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#727 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hendry (town): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #65 of 73 in FL (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 942 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 557 units permitted in Hendry County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hendry County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $280k implies a 1767% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.9% in Pioneer — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $2,437/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 498% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.