165 Carousel Ave · Pioneer, FL 33935

$279,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · Land · 94 Days on market

Built 2026 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under construction. This appealing Freeport II Model, 4-Bedrooms, 2-Bathrooms, 2-Car Garage one-story home includes many contemporary features, and an open-concept design with 8'8" ceilings that enhance the wonderful feel of this home. The well-appointed kitchen includes a large island perfect for bar-style eating or entertaining, a walk-in pantry, and plenty of cabinets and counter space. The dining room overlook the covered lanai, which is a great area for relaxing and dining al fresco. The large primary bedroom located at the back of the home for privacy can comfortably fit a king-size bed, and includes an En Suite bathroom with double vanity, big walk-in closet, and separate linen closet. This open concept Home comes with designer cabinets, Rev wood flooring throughout, Quartz counters, all stainless-steel kitchen appliances, Hurricane Impact resistant windows & doors, and the latest Smart Home technology with smart thermostat, smart door lock, video doorbell, smart garage controller, hands free commands and more. We also provide your homesite fully sodded and landscaped. These homes move quickly so don't miss out!! Finishings may vary - images are representational only of the model home based in that community.

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Big walk-in closet
• Open concept design

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COVERED LANAI
• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• BIG WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property in Port LaBelle development; Lot approx. 0.28 acres (regular lot, dimensions provided); No canal access
• HOA & community: No HOA maintenance; Community listed as non-gated (see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway
• Security: Impact resistant windows and doors
• Utilities: Central water; Septic sewer; Electric service (central); Well irrigation
• Home design: Single-family residential; 1 story (Ranch); Rear exposure facing east
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Built in 2026; Surveyed lot
• Exterior features: Room for pool; Automatic sprinkler system (auto); Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Walk-in pantry; Dishwasher; Range; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Refrigerator/icemaker
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Split bedroom layout
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Cable available
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Great room; Open porch/lanai; Unfurnished; Water treatment (owned); Home automation; Auto garage door
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-120/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.9% in Pioneer — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#727 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hendry (town): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #65 of 73 in FL (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 942 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 557 units permitted in Hendry County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,437/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 498% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hendry County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $280k implies a 1767% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,667 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $151,893
• Equity at exit: $252,245

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $447,874
• Equity at exit: $543,976

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33935

• Home prices YoY: 16.3%
• Active inventory: 942
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,437 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $278,547

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
513 Ella Jean Pl Labelle, FL	4.0	2.0	1485	$2,000	$1.35	24d	1	0.80mi
634 Royce Rd Labelle, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$2,100	$1.44	15d	1	0.91mi
1305 Andover Dr Labelle, FL	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,400	$1.37	24d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,999 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,999 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,999 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,999 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,999 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,999 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,999 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,999 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,999 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,999 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,999 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,999 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,999 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,999 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    price $279,999 1247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1247 chars)

    Under construction. This appealing Freeport II Model, 4-Bedrooms, 2-Bathrooms, 2-Car Garage one-story home includes many contemporary features, and an open-concept design with 8'8" ceilings that enhance the wonderful feel of this home. The well-appointed kitchen includes a large island perfect for bar-style eating or entertaining, a walk-in pantry, and plenty of cabinets and counter space. The dining room overlook the covered lanai, which is a great area for relaxing and dining al fresco. The large primary bedroom located at the back of the home for privacy can comfortably fit a king-size bed, and includes an En Suite bathroom with double vanity, big walk-in closet, and separate linen closet. This open concept Home comes with designer cabinets, Rev wood flooring throughout, Quartz counters, all stainless-steel kitchen appliances, Hurricane Impact resistant windows & doors, and the latest Smart Home technology with smart thermostat, smart door lock, video doorbell, smart garage controller, hands free commands and more. We also provide your homesite fully sodded and landscaped. These homes move quickly so don't miss out!! Finishings may vary - images are representational only of the model home based in that community.

16. 2026-05-21
    price $279,999
17. 2026-03-26
    price $299,999

    Show marketing remark (1247 chars)

    Under construction. This appealing Freeport II Model, 4-Bedrooms, 2-Bathrooms, 2-Car Garage one-story home includes many contemporary features, and an open-concept design with 8'8" ceilings that enhance the wonderful feel of this home. The well-appointed kitchen includes a large island perfect for bar-style eating or entertaining, a walk-in pantry, and plenty of cabinets and counter space. The dining room overlook the covered lanai, which is a great area for relaxing and dining al fresco. The large primary bedroom located at the back of the home for privacy can comfortably fit a king-size bed, and includes an En Suite bathroom with double vanity, big walk-in closet, and separate linen closet. This open concept Home comes with designer cabinets, Rev wood flooring throughout, Quartz counters, all stainless-steel kitchen appliances, Hurricane Impact resistant windows & doors, and the latest Smart Home technology with smart thermostat, smart door lock, video doorbell, smart garage controller, hands free commands and more. We also provide your homesite fully sodded and landscaped. These homes move quickly so don't miss out!! Finishings may vary - images are representational only of the model home based in that community.

18. 2026-03-26
    price $299,999 1247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1247 chars)

    Under construction. This appealing Freeport II Model, 4-Bedrooms, 2-Bathrooms, 2-Car Garage one-story home includes many contemporary features, and an open-concept design with 8'8" ceilings that enhance the wonderful feel of this home. The well-appointed kitchen includes a large island perfect for bar-style eating or entertaining, a walk-in pantry, and plenty of cabinets and counter space. The dining room overlook the covered lanai, which is a great area for relaxing and dining al fresco. The large primary bedroom located at the back of the home for privacy can comfortably fit a king-size bed, and includes an En Suite bathroom with double vanity, big walk-in closet, and separate linen closet. This open concept Home comes with designer cabinets, Rev wood flooring throughout, Quartz counters, all stainless-steel kitchen appliances, Hurricane Impact resistant windows & doors, and the latest Smart Home technology with smart thermostat, smart door lock, video doorbell, smart garage controller, hands free commands and more. We also provide your homesite fully sodded and landscaped. These homes move quickly so don't miss out!! Finishings may vary - images are representational only of the model home based in that community.

19. 2026-03-17
    listed $305,380 Active 1247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1247 chars)

    Under construction. This appealing Freeport II Model, 4-Bedrooms, 2-Bathrooms, 2-Car Garage one-story home includes many contemporary features, and an open-concept design with 8'8" ceilings that enhance the wonderful feel of this home. The well-appointed kitchen includes a large island perfect for bar-style eating or entertaining, a walk-in pantry, and plenty of cabinets and counter space. The dining room overlook the covered lanai, which is a great area for relaxing and dining al fresco. The large primary bedroom located at the back of the home for privacy can comfortably fit a king-size bed, and includes an En Suite bathroom with double vanity, big walk-in closet, and separate linen closet. This open concept Home comes with designer cabinets, Rev wood flooring throughout, Quartz counters, all stainless-steel kitchen appliances, Hurricane Impact resistant windows & doors, and the latest Smart Home technology with smart thermostat, smart door lock, video doorbell, smart garage controller, hands free commands and more. We also provide your homesite fully sodded and landscaped. These homes move quickly so don't miss out!! Finishings may vary - images are representational only of the model home based in that community.

20. 2026-03-16
    listed $305,380 Active
21. 2025-10-24
    soldstatus $15,000
22. 2025-06-06
    price $15,700
23. 2025-05-15
    price $16,050
24. 2025-04-28
    price $16,100
25. 2025-04-10
    price $16,200
26. 2025-03-23
    price $16,250
27. 2025-03-22
    status Active
28. 2025-02-21
    price $16,200
29. 2025-02-13
    price $16,300
30. 2025-01-25
    price $16,500
31. 2025-01-10
    price $16,700
32. 2024-12-28
    price $16,900
33. 2024-12-16
    price $17,400
34. 2024-12-02
    price $17,900
35. 2024-11-08
    price $18,400
36. 2024-10-19
    listed $18,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,339
• − Management: −$2,339
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$4,868
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,168
• After-tax cash flow: $1,048/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hendry
• NCES district ID: 1200780
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,043
• Composite: 31.16/100
• National rank: #6054
• State rank: #65 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pioneer

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #727
• US rank: #15534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hendry County · 23,186 people
• Metro: Clewiston, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,186
• Household income: $57,009
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 498.0

Population outlook (Hendry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,866 people
• By 2030: 38,558 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 37,743 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 36,117 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 30,070 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 21,966 · -43.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 39% Two or more races 21% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Hendry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.3) · D 30.4% · R 68.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -38.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.3 2020: R+23.0 2016: R+14.2 2012: R+5.9 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 75.20%
• Current HPI: 537.4928
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Clewiston, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1381.5% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $279,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $279,999 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $299,999 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $299,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-17 Listed $305,380 Zillow
• 2026-03-16 Listed $305,380 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $15,700 BEARMLS
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $16,050 BEARMLS
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $16,100 BEARMLS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $16,200 BEARMLS
• 2025-03-23 Price Changed $16,250 BEARMLS
• 2025-03-22 Relisted — BEARMLS
• 2025-02-21 Price Changed $16,200 BEARMLS
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $16,300 BEARMLS
• 2025-01-25 Price Changed $16,500 BEARMLS
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $16,700 BEARMLS
• 2024-12-28 Price Changed $16,900 BEARMLS
• 2024-12-16 Price Changed $17,400 BEARMLS
• 2024-12-02 Price Changed $17,900 BEARMLS
• 2024-11-08 Price Changed $18,400 BEARMLS
• 2024-10-19 Listed $18,900 BEARMLS

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $419 · +56.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.