430 Brown Ave

Butler, PA 16001

$33,900B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,280/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$178
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $709/mo
• Annual: $8,508/yr
• Cap rate: 31.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.64%
• DSCR: 4.99
• 1% rule: 3.78%
• Cash to close: $9,492

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $34k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $709 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $34k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $33k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $234 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#705 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Butler Area SD (town): math 41% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #181 of 539 in PA (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Butler Area Ihs (math 25% / reading 55%, grade F, #257 of 512 statewide, top 52%, 1,342 students, 47% FRL); Butler Area Shs (math 72% / reading 30%, grade D+, #123 of 437 statewide, top 28%, 1,989 students, 31% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+20.4%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 987 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butler County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 31.4% vs local median 6.2% in Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.