430 Brown Ave · Butler, PA 16001

$33,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1900 6,756 sqft lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated Cottage style home. Large front yard, updated kitchen and bathroom, entire home was painted with new carpeting and flooring throughout.

Key facts

• Easy access
• Spacious footprint
• 6,756 sq ft lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS FOOTPRINT
• EASY ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story resale property
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.155 acres (about 6,756 sq ft)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $34k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $709 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.4% vs local median 6.2% in Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#705 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Butler Area SD (town): math 41% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #181 of 539 in PA (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+20.4%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 987 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $234 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butler County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $32,883 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.64%
• DSCR: 4.99
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,660
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 W Boyd Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+1%)	9mo	$68,620	$46	78
126 Wilkens Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,459 (-1%)	10mo	$73,500	$50	74
201 Wallula Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-4%)	3mo	$145,000	$103	72
457 Brown Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-9%)	9mo	$210,000	$156	68
221 E Metzger Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,326 (-10%)	1mo	$150,000	$113	67
208 Morton Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+14%)	5mo	$67,000	$40	58
514 S Washington St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-10%)	3mo	$82,400	$62	53
461 Zeigler Ave	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+1%)	6mo	$180,000	$121	53
414 S Washington St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,272 (-14%)	4mo	$20,000	$16	49
116 E Rockenstein Ave	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,688 (+15%)	5mo	$305,304	$181	45
218 W Diamond St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,638 (+11%)	1mo	$119,900	$73	45
508 Negley Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,255 (-15%)	10mo	$97,335	$78	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 96.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.90×
• Total profit: $46,492
• Equity at exit: $5,055

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.66×
• Total profit: $129,675
• Equity at exit: $2,931

Cash invested: $9,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16001

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Rents YoY: 20.4%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,280 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$178
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,325/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $709

Break-even live

Break-even rent $383

Max offer price $33,900

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $728	-5% $719	+0% $709	+5% $699	+10% $690
Rent	-10% $608	-5% $658	+0% $709	+5% $760	+10% $810
Rate	-1.0pp $726	-0.5pp $718	base $709	+0.5pp $700	+1.0pp $691

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,475
• Closing costs: $1,017
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 Brown Ave Butler, PA	3.0	2.5	1640	$1,500	$0.91	13d	1	0.07mi
208 E Walnut St Butler, PA	3.0	1.5	1297	$1,050	$0.81	25d	1	0.94mi
327 W Brady St Unit 2 Butler, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	22d	1	1.00mi
303 Wilson Ave Unit Wilson-313 Butler, PA	3.0	1.0	894	$1,005	$1.12	17d	1	1.11mi
313 Wilson Ave Butler, PA	3.0	1.0	894	$1,005	$1.12	17d	1	1.12mi
206 Litman Rd Butler, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,170	$1.46	3d	3	1.15mi
529 Federal St Unit 2 Butler, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	45d	1	1.24mi
530 N Main St Butler, PA	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,088	$1.03	3d	2	1.25mi
305 American Ave Butler, PA	2.0	1.0	986	$995	$1.01	45d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $33,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $33,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $33,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $33,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $33,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $33,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $33,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $33,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $33,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $33,900 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $33,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $33,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $33,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $42,900 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $42,900 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $42,900 Active
17. 2020-07-02
    soldstatus $39,000 Sold 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Updated Cottage style home. Large front yard, updated kitchen and bathroom, entire home was painted with new carpeting and flooring throughout.

18. 2020-06-30
    status Under Contract 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Updated Cottage style home. Large front yard, updated kitchen and bathroom, entire home was painted with new carpeting and flooring throughout.

19. 2020-06-18
    historical Contingent 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Updated Cottage style home. Large front yard, updated kitchen and bathroom, entire home was painted with new carpeting and flooring throughout.

20. 2020-06-12
    status Active 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Updated Cottage style home. Large front yard, updated kitchen and bathroom, entire home was painted with new carpeting and flooring throughout.

21. 2020-06-08
    historical Contingent 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Updated Cottage style home. Large front yard, updated kitchen and bathroom, entire home was painted with new carpeting and flooring throughout.

22. 2020-06-04
    listed $39,000 Active 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Updated Cottage style home. Large front yard, updated kitchen and bathroom, entire home was painted with new carpeting and flooring throughout.

23. 2020-05-27
    historical Expired 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Updated Cottage style home. Large front yard, updated kitchen and bathroom, entire home was painted with new carpeting and flooring throughout.

24. 2019-12-12
    price $42,900 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Updated Cottage style home. Large front yard, updated kitchen and bathroom, entire home was painted with new carpeting and flooring throughout.

25. 2019-08-23
    price $44,900 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Updated Cottage style home. Large front yard, updated kitchen and bathroom, entire home was painted with new carpeting and flooring throughout.

26. 2019-06-28
    price $47,900 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Updated Cottage style home. Large front yard, updated kitchen and bathroom, entire home was painted with new carpeting and flooring throughout.

27. 2019-05-28
    listed $49,900 Active 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Updated Cottage style home. Large front yard, updated kitchen and bathroom, entire home was painted with new carpeting and flooring throughout.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,325 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,325 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,899
• − Property taxes: −$1,325
• − Insurance: −$170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,229
• − Management: −$1,229
• − Depreciation: −$986
• Taxable income: $8,525
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,046
• After-tax cash flow: $6,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Butler Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4204590
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,348
• Composite: 42.65/100
• National rank: #3180
• State rank: #181 of 539 in PA

Livability — Butler

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #705
• US rank: #6951

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Butler, PA
• County: Butler County · 73,107 people
• City population: 39,234
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• Population (ZIP): 39,234
• Household income: $63,635
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1441.0

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 190,777 people
• By 2030: 191,476 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 189,474 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 182,050 · -4.6%
• By 2075: 159,526 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 129,028 · -32.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Serbian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.5% · R 65.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+37.5 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.40%
• Current HPI: 222.4445
• Rent YoY: ▲ 20.36%
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $42,900 West Penn MLS
• 2020-07-02 Sold (MLS) $39,000 West Penn MLS
• 2020-06-30 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2020-06-18 Contingent — West Penn MLS
• 2020-06-12 Relisted — West Penn MLS
• 2020-06-08 Contingent — West Penn MLS
• 2020-06-04 Listed $39,000 West Penn MLS
• 2020-05-27 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2019-12-12 Price Changed $42,900 West Penn MLS
• 2019-08-23 Price Changed $44,900 West Penn MLS
• 2019-06-28 Price Changed $47,900 West Penn MLS
• 2019-05-28 Listed $49,900 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,325 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.