22511 Bellwick Ridge Ln

Houston, TX 77449

$289,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,966 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Active · 153 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,375/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$761
• HOA: −$67
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-468/mo
• Annual: $-5,611/yr
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.93%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-468 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (17.8% below list).
• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 762 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?