22511 Bellwick Ridge Ln · Houston, TX 77449

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,966 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 153 Days on market

Built 2014 5,401 sqft lot $147/sqft · 7% below area Est $310k · 7% under $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming one-story home in the charming and developed community with nearby parks, walking trails, and community amenities including pool and playgrounds. Thoughtfully designed with an open-concept layout, this home features 3 beds and 2 baths, offers an open kitchen to family room with fresh new coat of paint, as well as new LVP flooring throughout the entire house. A dedicated office provides a flexible work from home space. The kitchen features brand new professional grade stainless steel vent hood, dishwasher and free-standing gas range and oven. New granite countertops, sink, light fixtures and faucet fixtures in both bathrooms. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio. This home benefits from convenient access to 99, I-10, Katy's Asian Town, the Katy Mills Mall and lots of shopping and dining. Don't miss the opportunity to live in one of the area's most desirable neighborhoods!

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Dedicated office
• Open concept layout

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• NEW GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• COVERED PATIO
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO 99
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO I-10

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-468 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 762 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,398 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.93%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,456
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: -6.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3402 Hawkins Glen Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	2,045 (+4%)	4mo	$335,000	$164	77
3746 Cactus Field Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,047 (+4%)	9mo	$349,000	$170	70
22306 Coffee Mill Ct	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,190 (+11%)	1mo	$375,000	$171	69
3114 Sabine Spring Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,857 (-6%)	3mo	$284,999	$153	61
22519 Holbrook Springs Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	2,140 (+9%)	8mo	$325,000	$152	58
21622 Sandystone Ln	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,912 (-3%)	4mo	$272,500	$143	57
3231 Bent Brook Way	0.67mi	3/2.5	2,044 (+4%)	7mo	$272,000	$133	55
4214 Fornari Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,786 (-9%)	4mo	$305,000	$171	47
4310 Fornari Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,830 (-7%)	8mo	$295,000	$161	45
4311 Nervesa Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,766 (-10%)	1mo	$280,000	$159	42
4315 Isoletta Ct	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,777 (-10%)	6mo	$280,000	$158	42
22726 Tara Way Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,199 (+12%)	0mo	$290,000	$132	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-61,766
• Equity at exit: $66,023

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-98,056
• Equity at exit: $66,192

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 762
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,375 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$641 /mo · $7,688/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,967

Max offer price $206,398

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-304	-5% $-386	+0% $-468	+5% $-549	+10% $-631
Rent	-10% $-655	-5% $-561	+0% $-468	+5% $-374	+10% $-280
Rate	-1.0pp $-322	-0.5pp $-394	base $-468	+0.5pp $-542	+1.0pp $-619

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21919 Clay Rd Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1658	$3,574	$2.16	0d	1	0.30mi
21919 Clay Rd Unit 21952 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,184	$1.36	0d	1	0.36mi
21919 Clay Rd Unit 3047 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,235	$1.39	12d	1	0.37mi
3819 Banks Ridge Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$2,050	$1.56	45d	1	0.43mi
3837 Banks Ridge Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,350	$1.42	45d	1	0.45mi
3200 Peek Rd Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$2,357	$2.20	0d	30	0.58mi
3206 Peek Rd Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,279	$1.48	45d	1	0.64mi
4110 Rapallo Ct Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2300	$2,600	$1.13	6d	1	0.76mi
22843 Castello Lakes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,148	$1.06	23d	1	0.87mi
23100 Clay Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$2,299	$2.33	0d	36	0.91mi
21527 N Boundary Peak Way Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2274	$2,000	$0.88	0d	1	0.92mi
23050 Morton Ranch Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$2,589	$2.33	0d	31	0.97mi
4411 Andorno Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2094	$2,221	$1.06	25d	1	0.99mi
3507 Banks Run Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1951	$1,806	$0.93	6d	1	1.06mi
22822 Capitol Landing Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1702	$1,399	$0.82	23d	1	1.28mi
23223 First Park Dr Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,272	$1.62	11d	1	1.31mi
23223 First Park Dr Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,283	$1.63	0d	1	1.31mi
23223 First Park Dr Unit 3187 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,232	$1.59	0d	1	1.31mi
23223 First Park Dr Unit 23256 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,283	$1.63	45d	1	1.31mi
22611 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	1.31mi
21106 Blackbluff Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1865	$1,950	$1.05	6d	1	1.32mi
22627 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,239	$1.53	6d	1	1.32mi
22613 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	45d	1	1.32mi
22629 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,239	$1.53	6d	1	1.32mi
22615 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	1.33mi
22617 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,279	$1.56	45d	1	1.34mi
22713 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,419	$1.45	14d	1	1.34mi
21622 Stonecross Terrace Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,050	$1.15	25d	1	1.35mi
22717 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,629	$1.30	6d	1	1.35mi
22719 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	18d	1	1.36mi
22737 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,649	$1.41	45d	1	1.36mi
22510 Leedstown Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,649	$1.29	6d	1	1.37mi
22628 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,659	$1.32	16d	1	1.37mi
22626 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,699	$1.35	45d	1	1.38mi
22720 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	18d	1	1.38mi
22722 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,559	$1.27	18d	1	1.38mi
22718 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,439	$1.30	6d	1	1.39mi
22624 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	1.39mi
22841 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,249	$1.54	6d	1	1.39mi
22716 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,439	$1.31	6d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscapingpool

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,000 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,000 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-01-19
    listed $319,000 Active 913-char remark

    Show marketing remark (913 chars)

    Welcome to this charming one-story home in the charming and developed community with nearby parks, walking trails, and community amenities including pool and playgrounds. Thoughtfully designed with an open-concept layout, this home features 3 beds and 2 baths, offers an open kitchen to family room with fresh new coat of paint, as well as new LVP flooring throughout the entire house. A dedicated office provides a flexible work from home space. The kitchen features brand new professional grade stainless steel vent hood, dishwasher and free-standing gas range and oven. New granite countertops, sink, light fixtures and faucet fixtures in both bathrooms. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio. This home benefits from convenient access to 99, I-10, Katy's Asian Town, the Katy Mills Mall and lots of shopping and dining. Don't miss the opportunity to live in one of the area's most desirable neighborhoods!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,688 · $641/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,688 · $641/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,497
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$7,688
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,280
• − Management: −$2,280
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$10,595
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,543
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Listed $319,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,688 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.