19 Geronimo St

North Hurley, NM 88043

$30,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,028 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Active · 770 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $998/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $591/mo
• Annual: $7,090/yr
• Cap rate: 29.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.41%
• DSCR: 4.76
• 1% rule: 3.33%
• Cash to close: $8,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($998 rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 770 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $693 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#304 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cobre Consolidated Schools (town): math 13% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #56 of 95 in NM (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 92% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP.
• Grant County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 770 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.