19 Geronimo St · North Hurley, NM 88043

$30,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,028 sqft · SingleFamily · 768 Days on market

Built 1945 10,454 sqft lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy home sits on a . 247-acre lot with wide open views to the south and west. Lush trees surrounding the property add to its charm. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom. Home is a fixer-upper, you can flip or start over with your ideal home.

Key facts

• <wide open views>
• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1945

Tags

• <WIDE OPEN VIEWS>
• <LUSH TREES SURROUNDING>

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($998 rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#304 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cobre Consolidated Schools (town): math 13% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #56 of 95 in NM (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 92% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $693 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grant County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 768 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 768 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.41%
• DSCR: 4.76
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 85.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.01×
• Total profit: $33,652
• Equity at exit: $5,403

10-year hold

• IRR: 88.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.35×
• Total profit: $78,564
• Equity at exit: $4,219

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88043

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $337/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $251

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 768 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 767 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 766 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 765 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 763 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $30,000 Active 762 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 759 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $30,000 Active 758 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $30,000 Active 757 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,000 Active 756 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $30,000 Active 753 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,000 Active 752 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,000 Active 751 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 750 DOM
15. 2025-04-07
    status Active 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    This cozy home sits on a . 247-acre lot with wide open views to the south and west. Lush trees surrounding the property add to its charm. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom. Home is a fixer-upper, you can flip or start over with your ideal home.

16. 2025-03-06
    status Pending 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    This cozy home sits on a . 247-acre lot with wide open views to the south and west. Lush trees surrounding the property add to its charm. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom. Home is a fixer-upper, you can flip or start over with your ideal home.

17. 2025-01-28
    price $30,000 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    This cozy home sits on a . 247-acre lot with wide open views to the south and west. Lush trees surrounding the property add to its charm. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom. Home is a fixer-upper, you can flip or start over with your ideal home.

18. 2024-04-06
    listed $35,000 Active 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    This cozy home sits on a . 247-acre lot with wide open views to the south and west. Lush trees surrounding the property add to its charm. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom. Home is a fixer-upper, you can flip or start over with your ideal home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $337 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $337 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$337
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$959
• − Management: −$959
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $7,024
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,686
• After-tax cash flow: $5,404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cobre Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500600
• Math proficiency: 13% —
• Reading proficiency: 33% —
• Median HH income: $32,044
• Composite: 21.77/100
• National rank: #13581
• State rank: #56 of 95 in NM

Livability — North Hurley

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #26095

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Hurley, NM
• Population (ZIP): 1,218

Population outlook (Grant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,478 people
• By 2030: 25,179 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 22,711 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 20,807 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 16,893 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 13,020 · -50.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 45% White 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 52% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grant

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.1) · D 51.3% · R 46.3% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.1 2020: D+7.2 2016: D+7.7 2012: D+13.5 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.31%
• Current HPI: 134.3788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-07 Relisted — SCRMLS
• 2025-03-06 Pending — SCRMLS
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $30,000 SCRMLS
• 2024-04-06 Listed $35,000 SCRMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $337 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.