3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,512 sqft ·
Built 1986
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 76 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,788/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,884
Tax + insurance
−$1,130
HOA
−$638
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,215
Net cashflow
$-80/mo
Annual
$-958/yr
Cap rate
6.12%
Cash-on-cash
-0.62%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
1.05%
Cash to close
$153,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $550k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-958/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $536k (2.6% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $550k).
It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($517k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $517k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#464 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Marsh Pointe Elementary (math 85% / reading 85%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 835 students, 16% FRL); Watson B. Duncan Middle School (math 54% / reading 59%, grade B, #171 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 1,157 students, 41% FRL); William T. Dwyer High School (math 36% / reading 58%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,206 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 52% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 542 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
25 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $244k; list at $550k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $5,788/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($125k/yr) (locally 1339% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
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